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Reply #11: National Exit Poll deviations from 2000 Final to 2004 Prelim & Final [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. National Exit Poll deviations from 2000 Final to 2004 Prelim & Final
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 06:15 PM by TruthIsAll
Compare the weights and percentages.
Very strange.


	National Exit Poll			National Exit Poll								
	Prelim: 12:22am			Final: 2:05pm		Change from			
	13047 respondents			13660 respondents	 Prelim. To Final			
														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader

GENDER Didn't Kerry do at least as well as Gore?													
Male
	-2.0%	-1.0%	5.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	>>?	0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Female
	2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	0.4%	2.5%	-1.5%		0.0%	3.4%	-0.5%	-2.5%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
														
		
AGE	Didn't more young people vote this time?													
18-29
	0.0%	-3.0%	8.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%	>>?	0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
30-44
	-6.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-1.0%		-4.0%	4.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
45-59
	2.0%	-2.0%	3.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Over 60
	4.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	7.0%	-5.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	0.1%	1.9%	-1.5%		0.0%	3.3%	-0.7%	-2.2%		0.0%	3.1%	-2.6%	-0.7%
														
EDUCATION 														
No
H.S.	-1.0%	8.0%	-7.0%	0.0%		-1.0%	10.0%	-9.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
H.S. Grad
	1.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	0.0%		1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-4.0%	-1.0%
Some College
	-1.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	1.0%	-3.0%	>>?	1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
College Grad
	2.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	-2.0%		2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	0.0%
Postgrad
	-1.0%	-4.0%	6.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	>>?	-1.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.7%	2.6%	-1.3%		0.0%	2.4%	0.3%	-2.1%		0.0%	3.1%	-2.3%	-0.7%
														
INCOME														
0-$15K
	2.0%	-4.0%	9.0%	-3.0%		1.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-4.0%	>>?	-1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
$15-30
	-1.0%	-2.0%	5.0%	-2.0%		-1.0%	1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$30-50
	-2.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$50-75
	-2.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$75-100
	0.0%	-2.0%	4.0%	-2.0%		1.0%	3.0%	0.0%	-2.0%	>>?	1.0%	5.0%	-4.0%	0.0%
100+	3.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%		3.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	0.0%		0.0%	5.0%	-5.0%	0.0%
														
														
PARTYID Weren't most new voters for Kerry?													
Democrat
	-1.0%	-2.0%	4.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	>>?	-1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Republican
	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%		2.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	0.0%		2.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Indep	1.0%	-2.0%	7.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	1.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	>>?	-1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.6%	2.7%	-1.4%		0.0%	1.3%	1.1%	-1.5%		0.0%	1.9%	-1.5%	-0.1%
														
IDEOLOGY Weren't most new voters Liberals/Mods?													
Liberal
	1.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%		0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	-5.0%	>>?	-1.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Moderate
	-5.0%	-3.0%	5.0%	-1.0%		-5.0%	1.0%	2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Conservative
	4.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%		5.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.1%	2.1%	-1.6%		0.0%	2.6%	0.2%	-2.3%		0.0%	2.7%	-1.9%	-0.8%
														
														
VOTED
2000 2 mil. phantom Bush 2000 voters? Impossible.												
Gore	-8.0%	-7.0%	9.0%	-1.0%		-10.0%	-5.0%	8.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Bush	9.0%	-1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		11.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Other	-3.0%	-51.0%	38.0%	9.0%		-3.0%	-43.0%	44.0%	1.0%		0.0%	8.0%	6.0%	-8.0%
											0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
No	4.0%	-11.0%	13.0%	-2.0%		4.0%	-7.0%	10.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.4%	2.2%	-1.3%		0.0%	1.7%	1.5%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.1%	-0.7%	-0.6%


WHEN DECIDED														
Today 	Didn't Kerry gain in the last month?													
Last3Days
	-8.0%	-5.0%	5.0%	-1.0%		-7.0%	-4.0%	7.0%	-4.0%		1.0%	1.0%	2.0%	-3.0%
Last Week
	-4.0%	7.0%	0.0%	-4.0%		-4.0%	7.0%	0.0%	-5.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.0%
Last Month
	-3.0%	-7.0%	11.0%	-4.0%		-3.0%	-1.0%	5.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	0.0%
Before
	9.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		9.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-4.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.6%	3.1%	-1.7%		0.0%	2.7%	-0.7%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.3%	-3.8%	-0.4%
														
RELIGION														
Prot.	-1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%		-1.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Catholic
	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Jewish	-1.0%	4.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Other
	1.0%	-8.0%	13.0%	-3.0%		1.0%	-5.0%	12.0%	-6.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-3.0%
None
	1.0%	-1.0%	9.0%	-6.0%		1.0%	1.0%	6.0%	-6.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.2%	2.3%	-1.5%		0.0%	2.7%	-0.6%	-2.5%		0.0%	2.9%	-2.9%	-1.0%
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