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Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 02:04 PM
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Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
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Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM by TruthIsAll
In the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047, which Kerry won by 51-48%,
the Party ID weighting was:
Dem - 38%
Rep - 35%
Ind - 27%

These were the Party ID weightings in the FINAL EXIT POLLS of 1996 and 2000:

1996 - Clinton won the popular vote
Dem - 39.4%
Rep - 34.7%
Ind - 25.9%

2000 - Gore won the popular vote
Dem - 39%
Rep - 35%
Ind - 26%

In the 2004 FINAL EXIT POLL of 13660, which Bush won by 51-48%,
the Party ID weighting was:
Dem - 37%
Rep - 37%
Ind - 26%

In the change from 38/35/27 in the 2004 Preliminary to 37/27/26 in the Final, we have:

1 Democrat out of 38 (2.6%) switched to Republican.
1 Independent out of 27 (3.7%) switched to Republican.

Are we to believe these switches, when every exit poll prior to the FINAL in 2004 indicated otherwise?

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the weighting mix based on statistical data and historic trends? If that is the case, based on 1996-2000, all final weights pointed to a 4% Democratic advantage.

What happened to change this trend between 2000 and 2004?

Furthermore, we know that New voters went to Kerry from
59-39% in Preliminary Exit Poll 1 (11027 respondents, 7:38pm) to
57-41% in Exit Poll 2 (13047, 12:22 am) to
54-45% in the Final (13660, 2:05pm).

Were these New Voters for Kerry Republicans, Democrats or Independents?

We also know that Independents favored Kerry, by
52-45% in the preliminary polls and
49-48% in the FINAL.

So why would 3.7% switch Party-ID from Independent to Republican and still vote for Kerry?

If in 2000 the Party ID mix was 39/35/26, and in the preliminary 2004 Exit Poll it was 38/35/27, how could it change to 37/37/26?

The demographics fropm 1996 indicated otherwise.
The demographics fropm 2000 indicated otherwise.
The majority of 21 million + of New Voters voted for Kerry.
The majority of 33 million Independents voted for Kerry.

Anyone care to take a stab at explaining this one?

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