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Reply #2: Kerry Winning Margins for Plausible Final Exit Poll Turnout Scenarios [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Kerry Winning Margins for Plausible Final Exit Poll Turnout Scenarios
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 01:14 PM by TruthIsAll
FINAL EXIT POLL (13660)  
IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTING MIX

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
No	17%	45%	54%	1%	
Gore	37%	10%	90%	0%	
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%	
	100.0%	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%	
	122.26	62.49	59.27	0.50	
Bush wins by 3.22 mil
					
......................................................
PLAUSIBLE 2000 VOTER TURNOUT SCENARIOS	
Margin: Kerry win (millions of votes)
				
100% Bush turnout	100% Gore turnout		
Gore%	Weight Margin Bush%	Weight	Margin
97.00%	39.02%	1.88	97.00%	38.59%	4.31
98.00%	39.42%	2.22	98.00%	39.00%	3.86
99.00%	39.84%	2.59	99.00%	39.41%	3.4
100.0%	40.25%	2.94	100.0%	39.82%	2.94
					
........................................................					
WORST CASE KERRY SCENARIO					
Turnout: 100% Bush/ 97% Gore					

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
No	18.56%	45%	54%	1%	
Gore	39.02%	10%	90%	0%	
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%	
Other	2.60%	21%	71%	8%	
	100.0%	49.04%	50.57%	0.39%	
	122.26	59.95	61.83	0.48	
Kerry wins by		1.88	mm		
					
					
BEST CASE KERRY SCENARIO
Turnout 97% Bush/ 100% Gore					

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	18.56%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	38.59%	91%	9%	0%
Other	2.60%	21%	71%	8%
	100.0%	48.04%	51.57%	0.39%
	122.26	58.73	63.05	0.48
Kerry wins by		4.31	mm	
	
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