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Reply #30: Look, let's make up. I appreciate your work. We agree on much. [View All]

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Brotherjohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-01-05 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. Look, let's make up. I appreciate your work. We agree on much.
Look, let's make up. I appreciate your work. We agree on much.

I used the term "laid down the gauntlet" b/c I felt you were taking very personally what was honest constuctive criticism. I don't think it was kicking things up... I think it was accurate. I was merely trying to make the point that when you begin posts (in all CAPS mind you) "IF YOU BELIEVE THESE 5 IRREFUTABLE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...", that simply DOES come off as "throwing down the gauntlet", and you shouldn't take replies such as those you've gotten so personally. THAT KIND OF INTRO begs for a give-and-take, constructive criticism of whether or not your thesis does in fact prove what you say. They are merely attempts at picking apart the logic, a scientific exercise... Believe me, I'd like to fail at that and be convinced you have smoking-gun proof of a Kerry win.

Your initial language, and that throughout most of your posts, was much more unequivocal than your last one: "Just laying out the facts and replacing an impossible result with a very plausible scenario."

That is a much more accurate description of what you are doing. It is more "plausible". I agree on that.


I agree it is problematic. But the thing is, it is only an impossibility in the entire sample universe. It is not an impossibility in a poll of the universe, especially with error, and "weighting", etc.

I don't focus on those perse, I'm merely pointing out that you are assuming they are true in making your proof (even though you just said "they cannot factually be verified").

As far as "what I believe", I've alluded to as much in prior posts. I believe Kerry won. I believe the initial exit-poll results were more in line with actual numbers, and that the "weighting" was bogus (why the hell is it even tolerated?). I tend to believe E-M did their best to rationalize their weighting how their initial numbers were so different, for whatever reason (probably to avoid embarrassemnt to themselves and a constitutional crisis). They probably believe their results are accurate (and why not, they MADE them so). They probably DIDN'T ever consider the possibility of fraud on the part of Bush.

I believe the vote total accounts for probably millions of votes lost or improperly recorded by election officials who, lets face it, are in principle the same people who were protesting outside the hospice against the "murder" of Terry Schiavo. I wouldn't put anything beyong them... least of all to drop a few ballots in the trash or inadvertently flip a switch or two. I also believe the total vote reflects millions lost through voter intimidation which, despite their pot calling the kettle black rhetoric, was MUCH worse on the part of Republicans. Stationing (unqualified and biased) "observers" at polling places to "check their credentials"... yeah right! That this was ever allowed should have told us right there the election was lost.

I believe work like what you are doing and what USVoteCounts are doing will hopefully cast more light on problems with exit-polling and the lack of a paper trail in voting in general.
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