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Reply #12: Ok, brother, here we go again. Let's talk probabilities. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-01-05 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Ok, brother, here we go again. Let's talk probabilities.
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:47 PM by TruthIsAll
The Margin of Error is 1%.

Even assuming a 50/50 split in New Voters, Kerry still wins. That would mean a deviation of 4%, from 54% to 50%.

Now we know the earlier exit polls had Kerry a 57-41% and 59-39% winner of new voters. And we know that the 41/39% split was possible, even if extremely unlikely.

But let's use the IMPOSSIBLE Exit Poll of 13660 and make it even more so by reducing Kerry to 50% of new voters.

The odds of this 4% deviation:
= 1 - NORMDIST(0.54,0.5,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
= 2.22045E-15
or 1 in 450,359,962,737,050

Would a prosecutor call that PROOF?
Would a jury call that PROOF?

Would a jury convict given those odds in a civil case?

In a prior post, you said that I have proved ONE number was wrong, the Bush 43%.
It had to be lower.

You were wrong.
TWO numbers were wrong.
Don't forget the Kerry 37%.
It had to be higher.

It is obvious, beyond a reasonable doubt, that you and I have a different view on just what constitutes proof.
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