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Reply #16: OK, progress is being made here. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-30-05 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. OK, progress is being made here.
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 04:05 PM by TruthIsAll
I think we're just at odds on what "proof" means. In any case, it would have to mean "the Republican Congress and media have to believe it" for anything to happen.

I'm not a lawyer, But I believe that this far exceeds the definition of proof required in a civil case, which is what, 50%.

I have calculated probabilities for all categories, based on the deviations from the Preliminary Poll to the recorded vote.
From one in the millions to one in the billions, depending on the category. is too conservative when they say it's 1 in a million.

A question, though.

If they changed the results of the final exit polling to match the actual "official" tally, why change numbers that could be checked? Why not change the 17% new voters, or the % breakdowns by candidate within any of the groups? Could it be they were just operating on the fly and didn't see the error?

Good question. I believe they could not do it because the deviations would not have been enough and would have been more obvious.
Did you see my sensitivity analysis post from yesterday, based on voter turnout and Kerry share of new voters? That will tell you a lot.

They tried. They took Kerry from 59% to 57% to 54% of new voters in the final poll. If they took him to 50% and left the 41/39% intact, he would still have lost.

Maybe they were just operating on the fly.

I think the whole "weighting" thing throws it all out the window anyway. What does a polling of X number of people really mean if you are going to then weight the results based on expected outcome? Doesn't that render the whole exercise pointless?

EXACTLY!!I have posted on this as well.
It is all major bullshit perpetrated by the MSN, Mitofsky and those so-called liberal bloggers who fall for it.

When I first heard (CNN?) that they used the votes to match the poll it was a major WTF?. A Poll should stand by itself.

Let me know what you think about the sensitivity analysis thread.
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