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THE FINAL EXIT POLL MYSTERY: THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-30-05 10:14 AM
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THE FINAL EXIT POLL MYSTERY: THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX...
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Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM by TruthIsAll
I have presented different analyses on this topic, looking at
the Final Exit Poll category: How Voted in 2000. This is the
most important category of all, because it is the ONLY one in
which we can check the poll against ACTUAL numbers - the 2000
vote.

Follow the logic closely, even if you are mathematically lazy.
When you get right down to it, it's just simple arithmetic.

It's well worth the effort.

Assumption I: 
In the Voted 2000 category, the 17% NEW voters and 3% OTHER
voters stated in BOTH the PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL and FINAL EXIT
POLL are correct.

Assumption II:
NO Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election.

Assumption III:
100% of Bush 2000 voters (50.456 million) turned out to vote
in 2004. 
Thus, the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM percentage for Bush is
41.26%(50.456/122.26). 

Therefore, in order to equal 100%, the Gore percentage must be
38.74%.

Applying the ACTUAL 2000 Bush turnout, we will change the
IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL 43%/37% weighting mix to the
calculated mix.
We recalculate both PRELIMINARY and FINAL EXIT POLLS:

1) Bush LOSES by 3.68 million votes using the PRELIMINARY exit
poll statistics.

2) Bush LOSES by 0.23 million votes assuming the FINAL exit
poll statistics.

IN THE PRELIMINARY POLL, THE BUSH 41.26% WEIGHT EXACTLY
MATCHED THE PREVIOUSLY CALCULATED MAXIMUM WEIGHT (AFTER
ROUNDOFF) OF 41%/39%. 
VERY SUSPICIOUS INDEED.

IN THE FINAL POLL, BUSH AND GORE WEIGHTS WERE CHANGED TO AN
IMPOSSIBLE 43/37%.
THAT IS MORE THAN SUSPICIOUS.

Here are the calculated vote totals for both exit polls

1)PRELIMINARY exit poll
13047 respondents
12:22am 11/03

VOTED in 2000:
(Assumes 100% turnout of all Selection 2000 voters). 

2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.00%	41%	57%	2%
Gore	38.74%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41.26%	90%	9%	1%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	22%

	100%	47.59%	50.61%	1.80%
	122.26	58.19	61.87	2.20


2) Final Exit Poll
13660 respondents
2:05pm 11/03
 
Voted in 2000:
(Assumes 100% turnout of all Selection 2000 voters). 
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38.74%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	41.26%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%

	100%	49.70%	49.89%	0.41%
      122.26	60.76	60.99	0.50

Kerry wins by 0.23 million votes.
And that assumes the ALL THE FINAL EXIT POLL STATS. 

Bush won the IMPOSSIBLE FINAL by 3.5 million votes.
WE NOW KNOW THAT IS ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE, since it is based
on the ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE 43/37% mix.

But that's not all.
About 3.5% of Selection 2000 voters have since DIED.
And we have: 3.5% of 50.456 = 1.766 million

So the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of Bush 2000 voters who could
have turned out to vote in 2004 was 48.69 million: 
And we have: 50.456-1.766 = 48.69 

That brings the maximum possible Bush weighting down to
39.82%:
And we have: 48.69/122.26 = 39.82%

That means the GORE Voter and/or the NO Vote percentages are
TOO LOW.
That means Kerry did even BETTER than we have just calculated.

But that's not all.

The Bush turnout HAD TO BE LESS THAN 100%, since some Bush
2000 voters DID NOT VOTE in 2004.

So the 39.82% is STILL TOO HIGH...
That means the "GORE Voter" and/or the "NO
Vote" percentages are TOO LOW.
That means Kerry did even BETTER than we have just calculated.

THEREFORE, THE FINAL 13660 EXIT POLL, WHICH IS WEIGHTED TO
MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE, IS WRONG. 
THEREFORE, SO MUST THE RECORDED VOTE BE WRONG.
THEREFORE, THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL WAS MOST LIKELY CORRECT.
THEREFORE, KERRY WON.

 
 
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