According to the FINAL Exit poll, Bush won by 3.22 million
votes (51.11-48.48%). The critical stats: 43% of Bush 2000
voters and 37% of Gore voters returned to the polls in 2004.
We know these are IMPOSSIBLE stats right off the bat, since
the Bush 2000 vote (50.456 mil.) was 41.26% of the 122.26 mil.
votes in 2004.
BUT...THIS ASSUMES THAT NOT A SINGLE 2000 VOTER HAS SINCE
DIED, SO THE TRUE NUMBER HAS TO BE LESS THAN 41.26%. YET THE
FINAL EXIT POLL SHOWS A 43/37% MIX. IT HAD TO ASSUME THIS
ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE MIX IN ORDER TO MATCH TO THE RECORDED
VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT RAISING THE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE 41%/39%
SPLIT IN THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL(SEE "DEATH RATES"
BELOW).
To determine reasonable weights, using the following facts:
1. 122.26 million voted in 2004.
2. 104.777 million voted in 2000.
3. 50.999 million (48.67%) voted for Gore in 2000.
4. 50.456 million (48.15%) voted for Bush in 2000.
5. 3.322 million (3.17%) voted for Nader et al in 2000.
6. The net increase from 2000 to 2004 was 17.483 million
votes.
Using a table of annual U.S. death rates (8.7 per thousand),
we can estimate that 3.5% of Election 2000 voters have died
in the last 4 years (multiply the annual death rate of 8.7
per 1000 by 4).
Applying the rate to determine how many Gore, Bush and Nader
voters have died since 2000:
Gore: .035 * 50.999 = 1.785 million
Bush: .035 * 50.456 = 1.766 million
Nader: .035* 3.22 = 0.116 million
A total of approximately 3.667 Election 2000 voters died
prior to Election Day 2004.
Therefore, there had to be 21.15 million NEW VOTERS in 2004,
since 21.15 = 17.483 (net increase) + 3.667.
Now 21.15 million is 17.3% of the total 122.26 million 2004
vote.
THIS IS EQUAL TO THE 17% OF NEW VOTERS STATED IN THE FINAL
EXIT POLL.
Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of 2000 voters who could have
voted in 2004 has to be:
Gore voters: 50.999-1.785 = 49.21 million =40.25% of 122.26
Bush voters: 50.456-1.766 = 48.69 million =39.82%
Nader voters: 3.322-0.116 = 3.21 million = 2.62%
Assuming ALL voted (of course this is not true, some stayed
home)
Scenario 1
FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million
Voted 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
21.15 None 17.31% 45% 54% 1%
49.21 Gore 40.25% 10% 90% 0%
48.69 Bush 39.82% 91% 9% 0%
3.21 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16%
100% 48.39% 51.02% 0.59%
122.26 59.16 62.37 0.72
Kerry Margin 3.21
The bottom line:
THE ONLY WAY THAT BUSH COULD HAVE WON THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT
POLL WAS TO ASSUME THE USE OF IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS, AS SHOWN
ABOVE.
If the Bush/Gore weights are changed from an IMPOSSIBLE
43%/37% to 39.82%/40.25%, THEN KERRY WON THE ELECTION BY 3.21
MILLION VOTES.