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Reply #7: MORE STATISTICS TO BACK IT UP THE REALISTIC SCENARIOS... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-26-05 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. MORE STATISTICS TO BACK IT UP THE REALISTIC SCENARIOS...
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:33 AM by TruthIsAll
According to the FINAL Exit poll, Bush won by 3.22 million
votes (51.11-48.48%). The critical stats: 43% of Bush 2000
voters and 37% of Gore voters returned to the polls in 2004.

We know these are IMPOSSIBLE stats right off the bat, since
the Bush 2000 vote (50.456 mil.) was 41.26% of the 122.26 mil.
votes in 2004. 

BUT...THIS ASSUMES THAT NOT A SINGLE 2000 VOTER HAS SINCE
DIED, SO THE TRUE NUMBER HAS TO BE LESS THAN 41.26%. YET THE
FINAL EXIT POLL SHOWS A 43/37% MIX. IT HAD TO ASSUME THIS
ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE MIX IN ORDER TO MATCH TO THE RECORDED
VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT RAISING THE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE 41%/39%
SPLIT IN THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL(SEE "DEATH RATES"
BELOW).

To determine reasonable weights, using the following facts:
1. 122.26 million voted in 2004.
2. 104.777 million voted in 2000.
3. 50.999 million (48.67%) voted for Gore in 2000.
4. 50.456 million (48.15%) voted for Bush in 2000.
5. 3.322 million (3.17%) voted for Nader et al in 2000.
6. The net increase from 2000 to 2004 was 17.483 million
votes.

Using a table of annual U.S. death rates (8.7 per thousand),
we can estimate that 3.5% of Election 2000 voters have died
in the last 4 years (multiply the annual death rate of 8.7
per 1000 by 4).

Applying the rate to determine how many Gore, Bush and Nader
voters have died since 2000:

Gore: .035 * 50.999 = 1.785 million
Bush: .035 * 50.456 = 1.766 million
Nader: .035*   3.22 = 0.116 million

A total of approximately 3.667 Election 2000 voters died
prior to Election Day 2004. 

Therefore, there had to be 21.15 million NEW VOTERS in 2004,
since 21.15 = 17.483 (net increase) + 3.667.

Now 21.15 million is 17.3% of the total 122.26 million 2004
vote.
THIS IS EQUAL TO THE 17% OF NEW VOTERS STATED IN THE FINAL
EXIT POLL. 

Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of 2000 voters who could have
voted in 2004 has to be:
Gore voters: 50.999-1.785 = 49.21 million =40.25% of 122.26
Bush voters: 50.456-1.766 = 48.69 million =39.82% 
Nader voters: 3.322-0.116 =  3.21 million = 2.62% 

Assuming ALL voted (of course this is not true, some stayed
home) 

Scenario 1					
FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	
Voted	2000
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.15 	None	17.31%	45%	54%	1%
49.21 	Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
48.69 	Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
 3.21 	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%
	 	100% 48.39%  51.02%	0.59%
122.26		     59.16   62.37	0.72
Kerry	Margin	3.21			


The bottom line: 
THE ONLY WAY THAT BUSH COULD HAVE WON THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT
POLL WAS TO ASSUME THE USE OF IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS, AS SHOWN
ABOVE. 

If the Bush/Gore weights are changed from an IMPOSSIBLE
43%/37% to 39.82%/40.25%, THEN KERRY WON THE ELECTION BY 3.21
MILLION VOTES. 



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