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THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-26-05 05:40 AM
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THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
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Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM by TruthIsAll
Here are FIVE REALISTIC scenarios based on LIVE voter turnout.

A significant finding is this: 
Regardless of whether 100%, 99%, 98% or 97% of 2000 voters
returned to the polls, the Kerry winning margin hardly changes
(it increases by 18,000 votes for each 1% decline). So the
percentage turnout factor is of minimal effect. However, the
voter turnout MIX is THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WIDE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE TOTALLY UNREALISTIC AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FINAL EXIT POLL (13660) AND THE REALISTIC AND VERY PLAUSIBLE
PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL (13047).

Using the 13660 final exit poll, after adjusting from a
mathematically impossible mix (43 Bush/37% Gore) to a very
plausible one (39.82/40.25%), then Kerry wins by 3.21 million
votes (51%-48.4%), EXACTLY REVERSING the NEP conclusion that
Bush won by 3.22 million.

Using the 13047 preliminary exit poll weights, Kerry wins by 7
million votes (52%-46.5%).

The Five Scenario Summary:
Turnout Kerry Margin (millions)
1 100% 3.21 (NEP final)
2 100% 6.65 (NEP preliminary)
3  99% 6.84 ""
4  98% 7.02 ""
5  97% 7.20 ""

THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF 13660 is matched to the final
recorded vote. Bush won the poll by 3.22 million votes
(51.1-48.5%).
The poll asserts that 43% of Bush 2000 voters (an IMPOSSIBLE
104.14% turnout) came to the polls in 2004, while just 37% of
Gore voters did. The proof: Bush received 50.456 million votes
in 2000, or 41.26% of the total 122.26 million who voted in
2004. 

According to death rate statistics, approximately 3.5% of 2000
voters have died. Subtracting 3.5% from the 2000 individual
votes for Gore and Bush, and dividing the net result by 122.26
mm, then the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE LIVE 2000 voter turnout was
39.82% (Bush) and 40.25% (Gore). 					

FINAL EXIT POLL (13660):IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
20.774	No	17%	45%	54%	1%	
45.214	Gore	37%	10%	90%	1%	
52.546	Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	
3.666	Other	3%	21%	71%	3%	
101.426	TOTAL	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.63%
	Votes	122.53	62.49	59.27	0.77
Bush	Margin	3.22			


REALISTIC SCENARIOS:
		
Scenario 1					
FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.163	None	17.31%	45%	54%	1%
49.210	Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
48.684	Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%
	TOTAL	100.00%	48.39%	51.02%	0.59%
122.26	Votes		59.16	62.37	0.72
Kerry	Margin	3.21			
					
					
Scenario 2					
PRELIMINARY 13047 POLL- WEIGHTS ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH
RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.163	None	17.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%
49.210	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%
48.684	Bush	39.82%	90%	9%	1%
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.58%	52.02%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.95	63.61	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	6.65				
						
Scenario 3 (Most Likely)						
99% turnout of 2000 voters: 99.874	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
22.386	None	18.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
48.598	Gore	39.75%	8%	91%	1%	
48.073	Bush	39.32%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.51%	52.10%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.86	63.70	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	6.84				

Scenario 4						
98% turnout of 2000 voters: 98.652	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
23.608	None	19.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
47.987	Gore	39.25%	8%	91%	1%	
47.461	Bush	38.82%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.43%	52.17%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.77	63.79	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	7.02				

Scenario 5						
97% turnout of 2000 voters: 97.429	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
24.831	None	20.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
47.376	Gore	38.75%	8%	91%	1%	
46.850	Bush	38.32%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.36%	52.25%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.68	63.88	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	7.20				
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