Start here:
Preliminary Exit Poll
13047 Respondents
12:22am Nov.3
Kerry is the winner by 4.2 million votes:
50.82% - 47.38%
What does it take to turn that around for Bush?
Well, first you need 613 additional respondents.
And then you need to go to a massage parlor.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 1%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 0%
Other 3% 13% 65% 16%
100% 47.38% 50.82% 1.04%
Votes 57.93 62.13
Bush is trailing by 4.21 million votes.
Now this is the weighting you all have been waiting for:
1. Increase Bush share of new voters to 45%, reduce Kerry to
54%
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 0%
Other 3% 13% 65% 16%
100% 48.06% 50.31% 1.04%
Votes 58.76 61.51
Bush made up ground, but is still behind by 2.75 million
votes
2. Increase Bush Other to 21%, reduce Nader to 3%
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 65% 3%
100% 48.30% 50.31% 0.65%
Votes 59.05 61.51
Not much help. Bush is trailing by 2.46 million.
3. Reduce Gore 2000 voters for Kerry to 90%, increase Bush
2000 voters for Bush to 91%.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 39% 8% 90% 1%
Bush 41% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 48.71% 50.10% 0.65%
Votes 59.55 61.25
Good move. Bush is closing, and trailing by 1.70 million.
4. Increase Gore voters for Bush from 8 to 10%.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 39% 10% 90% 1%
Bush 41% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 49.49% 50.10% 0.65%
Votes 60.51 61.25
Big move. Bush is trailing by just 0.75 million.
A Drastic move is necessary.
Must change the Gore/Bush mix.
5.Increase the Bush mix to 42%, even though 41.26% is the
absolute maximum that could vote, assuming NO Bush 2000 voters
died and ALL returned to vote.
The hell with the Reluctant Bush Responder theory.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 38% 10% 90% 1%
Bush 42% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 50.30% 49.29% 0.64%
Votes 61.50 60.26
Bush has finally taken the lead.
But 1.23 million is not enough.
Since 42% is already an impossibility, let's go for all the
marbles and make it 43%.
What the hell.
Edison/Mitofsky need to match Bush's 3.5 million margin.
6. Increase the Bush/Gore spread to 43-37%.
That should do it.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 37% 10% 90% 1%
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.63%
Votes 62.49 59.27
Bush wins the Final Exit poll of 13660 respondents by 3.22
million votes.
The Final Exit Poll finally matches to the recorded vote.