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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-24-05 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
67. 13660
truthisall - nice work.

i wanted to highlight an issue in case it affects some of your analysis. it doesnt affect your primary point about the maximum number of bush votes, but it might be significant wrt some of your subsequent thinking/analysis.

the NEP didnt conduct 13660 interviews (or 13047, or any of those numbers) - despite what cnn (and others) are *still* reporting on their site. they actually only conducted 11719 interviews on election, and 500 pre-election day interviews, for a total of 12,219.

i first noticed the discrepancy here and see the first comment here

with some help from mysterypollster we were able to *almost* resolve the issue.

mysterypollster explains it best, so go visit there, but basically the 500 early (phone) interviews were counted 4 times, before being reweighted down by a factor of 0.25, but they forgot to change the total number - therefore the 13660 is too high by approx 1500.

note also that all 3 sets of exit poll data have this same error - basically, before election day started, there were already 2000 (or 500) entries in the system.

it isnt obvious whether MER has told cnn et al about the error, and if not, why not. similarly, its still not obvious why there is a discrepancy between the 13660 and the 13047.

hope this helps
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