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Reply #50: To be precise... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-22-05 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #35
50. To be precise...
YOU
"I'm not arguing that--the degree of swing state "red shift" is so improbable that vote fraud is the only reasonable explanation. I'm saying that your assertion--that too many voters claimed to have voted for Bush in 2000, therefore vote fraud must have occurred--is weak in comparison. But whatever. It's obviously important to you, so have at it".

Not quite. I am saying that the final exit poll was bogus, because it replaced a very improbable weighting (41%) to an absolutely impossible one (43%) in order to match the recorded vote count.
It is a mathematically impossibilty, because it added phantom voters to Bush's 2000 vote total, rather than subtracting out the voters who actually passed on. This could not have been due to pure chance.

The Final Exit Poll was supposed to produce a more "accurate" result by matching to the recorded vote count by re-weighting the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047. But in order to achieve this result,
it had to create 2 million phantom Bush 2000 voters. This produced a 4% discrepancy (2/50) in a poll which has a 1.0% margin of error. In actuality the error was 6-8% if you consider that based on mortality tables, 1.5 to 2 million Bush 2000 voters passed on before the election.

Now, since the 43% poll weighting is impossible for this demographic, so must the vote count be impossible - because use of the bogus 43% weight produced the same final Bush vote margin (51-48%) as do all the other category weightings.

THE VARIOUS CATEGORY WEIGHTINGS SHOULD ALL PRODUCE BUSH MARGINS WITHIN 1% OF EACH OTHER. THIS CATEGORY WEIGHTING IS IN ERROR BY 6-8%.
IF THIS CATEGORY IS THAT FAR OFF, THEN WE MUST ASSUME ALL THE OTHERS ARE AS WELL.
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