You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #43: More comments [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-22-05 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. More comments
Edited on Tue Mar-22-05 06:03 PM by papau
Why do you quote a mortality stat for an average age of 50+?

The death rate increases with age. Indeed if the average Bush voter was about 73 years old, a 3% death rate would be correct per year


Why not apply the 8.5 per 1000 annual death rate across the board (3.5% over a four year period)?

I do not know where the 3.5% death rate comes from that - it should not be 4 times the death rate in my post because that rate was for a 4 year period - the 8.5 per 1000 is the death rate for 4 years - about 2 per year per 1000.


What about voters who died from 20 on up?

- near zero death rates when you are young do not affect the mix that much - but I assume an average age of 50 - so a 20 year old and a 80 year old are 2 aver age 50 persons. They are all in the stat. To the extend older folks bias the death rate up - and vote more - we should use a weighted by number voting at a given age death rate rather than an average age. At age 80 220 out of a 1000 will die in 4 years, so an average would be 110 out of a 1000, at least - and not 8 per 1000 that the age 50 implies. We die fast when we get old! So I am not saying your numbers are unreasonable - just that they imply a lot of old folks voted for Bush.


There were 105 million voters in 2000. Why would the annual death rate not apply here?

It does.
==============================================
I am coming to the conclusion your 1.75 mil died is not so unreasonable - just that it assumes few young (under age 50) voters
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC