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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-22-05 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. More comments
Edited on Tue Mar-22-05 06:03 PM by papau
Why do you quote a mortality stat for an average age of 50+?

The death rate increases with age. Indeed if the average Bush voter was about 73 years old, a 3% death rate would be correct per year

Why not apply the 8.5 per 1000 annual death rate across the board (3.5% over a four year period)?

I do not know where the 3.5% death rate comes from that - it should not be 4 times the death rate in my post because that rate was for a 4 year period - the 8.5 per 1000 is the death rate for 4 years - about 2 per year per 1000.

What about voters who died from 20 on up?

- near zero death rates when you are young do not affect the mix that much - but I assume an average age of 50 - so a 20 year old and a 80 year old are 2 aver age 50 persons. They are all in the stat. To the extend older folks bias the death rate up - and vote more - we should use a weighted by number voting at a given age death rate rather than an average age. At age 80 220 out of a 1000 will die in 4 years, so an average would be 110 out of a 1000, at least - and not 8 per 1000 that the age 50 implies. We die fast when we get old! So I am not saying your numbers are unreasonable - just that they imply a lot of old folks voted for Bush.

There were 105 million voters in 2000. Why would the annual death rate not apply here?

It does.
I am coming to the conclusion your 1.75 mil died is not so unreasonable - just that it assumes few young (under age 50) voters
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