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Reply #7: The 613 extra respondents are not important. [View All]

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 09:21 PM
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7. The 613 extra respondents are not important.
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:31 PM by kiwi_expat
As Skids has pointed out in another thread, Mitofsky switched the Kerry-Bush spread in his final data by RE-weighting the original 13047 respondents.

Please look at the following Ohio precinct totals from NEP's final exit poll data. See how Mitofsky has converted the raw 1092-to-924 Kerry lead to a weighted 1025-to-984 Bush win.

The corresponding respondent records are also available. The individual records show exactly how Mitofsky has weighted the sample data to favour Bush. The re-weighting involves ALL of the respondent records.

Raw Kerry Raw Bush Raw Other Raw No vote KerryWgt BushWgt
12 11 0 2 20.438 19
24 26 0 2 17.743 22.478
12 17 0 0 16.851 26.669
24 11 0 1 26.062 14.481
18 26 0 1 14.486 29.224
17 15 0 0 24.292 21.765
18 31 0 4 13.826 27.383
47 4 0 2 34.588 4.424
31 16 0 0 24.341 14.263
28 1 0 1 38.741 1.36
9 11 0 1 14.795 22.486
33 17 0 1 25.342 13.996
23 29 0 0 18.166 27.103
13 33 0 0 10.313 31.885
18 32 0 0 14.125 29.13
24 23 1 0 18.486 22.018
12 13 0 0 17.459 21.868
11 11 1 1 16.679 20.55
13 16 0 0 15.795 23.998
34 16 0 1 25.029 14.16
40 51 1 0 16.928 26.815
6 9 0 0 13.92 24.626
11 23 0 0 11.021 30.65
46 6 0 1 31.285 4.619
21 10 0 0 22.682 14.445
13 39 0 0 10.792 35.929
8 8 0 0 17.977 19.583
12 16 0 0 17.475 25.475
14 33 0 1 10.924 32.974
19 19 0 0 18.557 21.765
30 14 0 0 24.432 13.53
55 12 0 0 30.291 7.346
22 10 0 0 25.85 13.517
27 26 0 0 20.174 23.441
55 15 0 0 28.332 9.747
33 18 0 0 25.649 16.942
11 34 0 1 9.82 34.471
13 19 0 0 16.479 29.473
28 23 1 0 23.604 20.83
11 18 0 0 14.053 26.169
17 14 0 0 19.772 20.786
35 17 0 1 25.18 14.846
24 24 0 0 17.53 23.887
12 10 0 0 23.108 20.854
24 30 0 1 17.847 24.165
18 25 0 0 14.734 23.625
9 19 0 0 13.355 31.327
22 15 0 0 21.614 17.468
35 8 0 0 33.16 7.574
1092 924 4 22 984.102 1025.12 TOTALS FOR OHIO


These final Ohio exit poll precinct totals are from the Ohio Excel spreadsheets prepared by Blue22. The data, itself, is from the Univ. of Mich. file. (Blue22 has kindly offered to e-mail the Excel spreadsheets to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.)


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