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A TIA MEA CULPA: THE "SIMPLE" NEP EXPLANATION IS WRONG... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 11:15 PM
Original message
A TIA MEA CULPA: THE "SIMPLE" NEP EXPLANATION IS WRONG...
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Edited on Sun Mar-20-05 11:53 PM by TruthIsAll
Its not that simple. I made a mistake in the spreadsheet which
calculates the votes from the preliminary to the final poll.

BUT THE GUN IS STILL SMOKING. 

THE BUSH TOTALS FOR THE VARIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS ADD UP TO
MORE THAN 613 ADDITIONAL RESPONDENTS, WHILE KERRY'S
INCREMENTAL TOTALS GO NEGATIVE. 

I'm surprised no one has caught it yet. These are the correct
numbers. There is no simple 1% incremental adjustment.

But that still leaves us with the last 613 exit poll
respondents who went 100%+ for Bush. Hopefully, the numbers
below will make more sense this time.

I'm sorry for the error.
The Naysayers can breathe easier now.

KP2 = KERRY SHARE IN THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL OF 13047
KF = KERRY SHARE OF THE 13660 FINAL 
KChg% = KERRY PERCENT CHANGE FROM PRELIM. TO FINAL 
KPCT = KERRY SUBCATEGORY PERCENTAGE OF 13660
BP2 = BUSH SHARE OF THE 13047 PRELIM.
BF  = BUSH SHARE OF THE FINAL 13660.
BChg% =  BUSH PERCENT CHANGE FROM PRELIM. TO FINAL
BPCT = BUSH SUBCATEGORY PERCENTAGE OF 13660

NOTE THE CHANGES FOR EACH DEMOGRAPHIC.
BUSH IS UP IN EACH, BUT BY VARYING AMOUNTS
  

	KP2	Chg	KF	KChg%	KPct	BP2	Chg	BF	BChg%	BPct
       13047	613	13660			13047	613	13660		

GENDER
Male 	2821	-56	2765	-1.98%	20.24%	3121	335	3456	10.74%	25.30%
Female
	3805	-43	3762	-1.12%	27.54%	3170	370	3541	11.68%	25.92%

EDUCATION
No H.S.	271	2	273	0.67%	2.00%	245	22	268	9.15%	1.96%
H.S. 	1464	-51	1412	-3.51%	10.34%	1378	185	1563	13.42%	11.44%
College
	1901	110	2011	5.78%	14.72%	2063	298	2360	14.43%	17.28%
ColGrad	1628	5	1634	0.34%	11.96%	1696	151	1847	8.89%	13.52%
PostG 	1286	-84	1202	-6.56%	8.80%	887	74	962	8.39%	7.04%

RACE/GENDER
WM	1926	-106	1820	-5.52%	13.32%	2724	325	3049	11.92%	22.32%
WF	2514	-50	2464	-1.98%	18.04%	2782	299	3080	10.74%	22.55%
NWM	900	15	915	1.66%	6.70%	365	44	410	12.18%	3.00%
NWF	1306	26	1332	1.98%	9.75%	373	53	426	14.22%	3.12%


AGE
18-29 	1242	12	1254	0.96%	9.18%	954	91	1045	9.57%	7.65%
30-44 	1726	96	1822	5.57%	13.34%	1761	338	2100	19.20%	15.37%
45-59 	1996	-29	1967	-1.46%	14.40%	1840	250	2090	13.61%	15.30%
60+	1628	-120	1508	-7.38%	11.04%	1730	40	1770	2.33%	12.96%


INCOME
0-$15K 	775	-87	688	-11.16%	5.04%	387	6	393	1.53%	2.88%
15-30 	1155	13	1168	1.15%	8.55%	763	97	861	12.75%	6.30%
30-50 	1493	10	1503	0.67%	11.00%	1349	123	1473	9.15%	10.78%
50-75 	1350	1	1351	0.05%	9.89%	1590	169	1759	10.62%	12.88%
75-100 	831	29	861	3.55%	6.30%	848	204	1052	24.03%	7.70%
100-150646	-15	631	-2.28%	4.62%	761	96	856	12.60%	6.27%
150-200245	-16	229	-6.44%	1.68%	277	40	317	14.58%	2.32%
$200+ 	160	-17	143	-10.62%	1.05%	227	31	258	13.72%	1.89%

IDEOLOGY
Lib	2468	-30	2438	-1.22%	17.85%	344	28	373	8.27%	2.73%
Mod	3347	-27	3319	-0.81%	24.30%	2407	359	2766	14.91%	20.25%
Con	689	8	697	1.13%	5.10%	3531	371	3901	10.50%	28.56%


RELIGION
Prot	2973	-77	2896	-2.61%	21.20%	3872	399	4271	10.31%	31.27%
Cath	1761	-28	1733	-1.58%	12.69%	1726	192	1918	11.11%	14.04%
Jewish	301	2	303	0.62%	2.22%	90	12	102	13.80%	0.75%
Other 	685	23	708	3.30%	5.18%	183	37	220	20.40%	1.61%
None 	913	2	915	0.21%	6.70%	378	45	423	11.92%	3.10%

MILITARY
Yes	1010	-2	1008	-0.17%	7.38%	1292	110	1402	8.51%	10.26%
No	5670	-70	5601	-1.23%	41.00%	4921	567	5489	11.53%	40.18%

WHEN DECIDED
Today 	415	-60	355	-14.40%	2.60%	313	-6	307	-1.85%	2.25%
3Days 	207	93	301	44.87%	2.20%	160	69	229	43.00%	1.68%
Week 	125	6	131	4.70%	0.96%	133	6	139	4.70%	1.02%
Month 	783	-45	738	-5.77%	5.40%	496	105	601	21.23%	4.40%
Before
	5154	-190	4964	-3.68%	36.34%	5154	566	5719	10.98%	41.87%



REGION
East	1665	18	1683	1.09%	12.32%	1177	115	1292	9.81%	9.46%
Midwt	1696	9	1705	0.51%	12.48%	1662	149	1811	8.97%	13.26%
South	1780	56	1836	3.16%	13.44%	2184	351	2535	16.08%	18.56%
West	1452	-86	1366	-5.93%	10.00%	1233	106	1339	8.58%	9.80%


PARTY-ID
Dem 	4462	36	4498	0.81%	32.93%	446	110	556	24.60%	4.07%
Rep 	320	-16	303	-5.13%	2.22%	4201	499	4700	11.88%	34.41%
Ind	1832	-92	1740	-5.00%	12.74%	1585	120	1705	7.54%	12.48%


VOTED IN 2000
NoVote	1264	-10	1254	-0.81%	9.18%	909	136	1045	14.91%	7.65%
Gore	4512	37	4549	0.82%	33.30%	397	109	505	27.43%	3.70%
Bush	481	47	529	9.81%	3.87%	4814	531	5345	11.03%	39.13%
Other	339	-48	291	-14.23%	2.13%	68	18	86	26.85%	0.63%
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