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Reply #20: Very small correction to Bush Preliminary Exit Poll % calculation [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 01:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
20. Very small correction to Bush Preliminary Exit Poll % calculation
Edited on Sun Mar-20-05 01:58 AM by TruthIsAll
	Prel.	Final		122.26	million votes										
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Male
	46%	46%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	26.43	29.24	24.75	30.93	-1.69	1.69
Female
	54%	54%	0%	54%	51%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	35.65	29.71	33.67	31.69	-1.98	1.98
	100%	100%				-3.0%			3.0%	62.08	58.95	58.42	62.62	-3.67	3.67
										50.78%	48.22%	47.78%	51.22%	-3.00%	3.00%
															
															
EDUCATION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No
H.S.	4%	4%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	2.54	2.30	2.45	2.40	-0.10	0.10
H.S.
	22%	22%	0%	51%	47%	-4%	48%	52%	4%	13.72	12.91	12.64	13.99	-1.08	1.08
College
	31%	32%	1%	47%	46%	-1%	51%	54%	3%	17.81	19.33	18.00	21.13	-0.38	1.14
ColGrad	26%	26%	0%	48%	46%	-2%	50%	52%	2%	15.26	15.89	14.62	16.53	-0.64	0.64
PostG
	17%	16%	-1%	58%	55%	-3%	40%	44%	4%	12.05	8.31	10.76	8.61	-0.62	0.83
	100%	100%				-2.40%			3.00%	61.39	58.75	58.46	62.65	-2.81	3.78
										50.21%	48.05%	47.82%	51.24%	-2.30%	3.09%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
RACE AND GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
WM	36%	36%	0%	41%	37%	-4%	58%	62%	4%	18.05	25.53	16.29	27.29	-1.76	1.76
WF	41%	41%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	23.56	26.07	22.06	27.57	-1.50	1.50
NWM	10%	10%	0%	69%	67%	-2%	28%	30%	2%	8.44	3.42	8.19	3.67	-0.24	0.24
NWF	13%	13%	0%	77%	75%	-2%	22%	24%	2%	12.24	3.50	11.92	3.81	-0.32	0.32
	100%	100%				-2.75%			2.75%	62.28	58.51	58.45	62.34	-3.83	3.83
										50.94%	47.86%	47.81%	50.99%	-3.13%	3.13%
	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
AGE	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
18-29
	17%	17%	0%	56%	54%	-2%	43%	45%	2%	11.64	8.94	11.22	9.35	-0.42	0.42
30-44
	27%	29%	2%	49%	46%	-3%	50%	53%	3%	16.17	16.51	16.31	18.79	-0.99	0.99
45-59
	30%	30%	0%	51%	48%	-3%	47%	51%	4%	18.71	17.24	17.61	18.71	-1.10	1.47
60+	26%	24%	-2%	48%	46%	-2%	51%	54%	3%	15.26	16.21	13.50	15.84	-0.64	0.95
	100%	100%				-2.5%			3.0%	61.78	58.89	58.64	62.69	-3.14	3.83
										50.53%	48.17%	47.96%	51.28%	-2.57%	3.13%
INCOME	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
0-$15K
	9%	8%	-1%	66%	63%	-3%	33%	36%	3%	7.26	3.63	6.16	3.52	-0.33	0.33
$15-30
	15%	15%	0%	59%	57%	-2%	39%	42%	3%	10.82	7.15	10.45	7.70	-0.37	0.55
$30-50
	22%	22%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	13.99	12.64	13.45	13.18	-0.54	0.54
$50-75
	23%	23%	0%	45%	43%	-2%	53%	56%	3%	12.65	14.90	12.09	15.75	-0.56	0.84
$75-100
	13%	14%	1%	49%	45%	-4%	50%	55%	5%	7.79	7.95	7.70	9.41	-0.64	0.79
$100-150
	11%	11%	0%	45%	42%	-3%	53%	57%	4%	6.05	7.13	5.65	7.67	-0.40	0.54
$150-200
	4%	4%	0%	47%	42%	-5%	53%	58%	5%	2.30	2.59	2.05	2.84	-0.24	0.24
$200+
	3%	3%	0%	41%	35%	-6%	58%	63%	5%	1.50	2.13	1.28	2.31	-0.22	0.18
	100%	100%				-3.38%			3.75%	62.36	58.12	58.84	62.38	-3.30	4.02
										51.01%	47.54%	48.13%	51.02%	-2.70%	3.29%
IDEOLOGY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Liberal
	22%	21%	-1%	86%	85%	-1%	12%	13%	1%	23.13	3.23	21.82	3.34	-0.27	0.27
Moderate
	45%	45%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	31.36	22.56	29.71	24.76	-1.65	2.20
Conservative
	33%	34%	1%	16%	15%	-1%	82%	84%	2%	6.46	33.08	6.24	34.92	-0.40	0.81
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.33%	60.95	58.87	57.77	63.01	-2.32	3.28
										49.85%	48.15%	47.25%	51.54%	-1.90%	2.68%
RELIGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Protestant	53%	53%	0%	43%	40%	-3%	56%	59%	3%	27.86	36.29	25.92	38.23	-1.94	1.94
Catholic
	27%	27%	0%	50%	47%	-3%	49%	52%	3%	16.51	16.17	15.51	17.17	-0.99	0.99
Jewish	3%	3%	0%	77%	74%	-3%	23%	25%	2%	2.82	0.84	2.71	0.92	-0.11	0.07
Other
	7%	7%	0%	75%	74%	-1%	20%	23%	3%	6.42	1.71	6.33	1.97	-0.09	0.26
None
	10%	10%	0%	70%	67%	-3%	29%	31%	2%	8.56	3.55	8.19	3.79	-0.37	0.24
	100%	100%				-2.60%			2.60%	62.17	58.56	58.67	62.07	-3.50	3.51
										50.85%	47.90%	47.99%	50.77%	-2.86%	2.87%
MILITARY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Yes
	18%	18%	0%	43%	41%	-2%	55%	57%	2%	9.46	12.10	9.02	12.54	-0.44	0.44
No
	82%	82%	0%	53%	50%	-3%	46%	49%	3%	53.13	46.12	50.13	49.12	-3.01	3.01
	100%	100%				-2.5%			2.5%	62.60	58.22	59.15	61.67	-3.48	3.48
										51.20%	47.62%	48.38%	50.44%	-2.84%	2.84%
WHEN DECIDED	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Today
	6%	5%	-1%	53%	52%	-1%	40%	45%	5%	3.89	2.93	3.18	2.75	-0.07	0.37
Last3Days
	3%	4%	1%	53%	55%	2%	41%	42%	1%	1.94	1.50	2.69	2.05	0.07	0.04
Last Week
	2%	2%	0%	48%	48%	0%	51%	51%	0%	1.17	1.25	1.17	1.25	0.00	0.00
Last Month
	10%	10%	0%	60%	54%	-6%	38%	44%	6%	7.34	4.65	6.60	5.38	-0.73	0.73
Before
	79%	79%	0%	50%	46%	-4%	50%	53%	3%	48.29	48.29	44.43	51.19	-3.86	2.90
	100%	100%				-1.80%			3.00%	62.63	58.62	58.07	62.62	-4.60	4.03
										51.23%	47.95%	47.50%	51.22%	-3.76%	3.30%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
REGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
East	22%	22%	0%	58%	56%	-2%	41%	43%	2%	15.60	11.03	15.06	11.57	-0.54	0.54
Midwest	26%	26%	0%	50%	48%	-2%	49%	51%	2%	15.89	15.58	15.26	16.21	-0.64	0.64
South	31%	32%	1%	44%	42%	-2%	54%	58%	4%	16.68	20.47	16.43	22.69	-0.76	1.52
West	21%	20%	-1%	53%	50%	-3%	45%	49%	4%	13.61	11.55	12.23	11.98	-0.77	1.03
	100%	100%				-1.98%			3.00%	61.78	58.62	58.98	62.45	-2.70	3.72
										50.53%	47.95%	48.24%	51.08%	-2.21%	3.04%
															
PARTY ID	(Rep 36% in 11027)														
Democrat
	38%	37%	-1%	90%	89%	-1%	9%	11%	2%	41.81	4.18	40.26	4.98	-0.46	0.93
Republican
	35%	37%	2%	7%	6%	-1%	92%	93%	1%	3.00	39.37	2.71	42.07	-0.43	0.43
Independent	27%	26%	-1%	52%	49%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	17.17	14.85	15.58	15.26	-0.99	0.99
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.00%	61.97	58.40	58.55	62.30	-1.88	2.35
										50.69%	47.77%	47.89%	50.96%	-1.54%	1.92%
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
VOTED IN 2000	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No	17%	17%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	11.85	8.52	11.22	9.35	-0.62	0.83
Gore	38%	37%	-1%	91%	90%	-1%	8%	10%	2%	42.28	3.72	40.71	4.52	-0.46	0.93
Bush	41%	43%	2%	9%	9%	0%	90%	91%	1%	4.51	45.11	4.73	47.84	0.00	0.50
Other	4%	3%	-1%	65%	71%	6%	13%	21%	8%	3.18	0.64	2.60	0.77	0.29	0.39
	100%	100%				0.50%			3.75%	61.81	57.99	59.27	62.49	-0.79	2.65
										50.56%	47.43%	48.48%	51.11%	-0.65%	2.17%
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