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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 12:52 PM
Original message
FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
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Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM by TruthIsAll
The exit poll category weightings changed in only a few
critical categories from the Preliminary Exit poll of 13047
respondents at 12:22am on 11/3 to the Final 13660 at 2:05pm.
														
Kerry won the 13047 preliminary poll by 51-48%.
But the vote shares changed dramatically with the final 613
respondents. 
The results switched a full 180. 
Bush won the final, official poll by 51-48%.

How did it happen?														
The exit poll data changes from 13047 to 13660 are
inexplicable in a number of category weightings.
						
The Key categories which raise RED FLAGS are:														
1 - GENDER 									
2 - PARTY-ID
3 - HOW THEY VOTED IN 2000
4 - THE VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000	


1 - GENDER
The 54% female/46% male split was CONSTANT from the
preliminary (13047) to the final exit poll (13660).

BUT Kerry's share of the female vote declined from 54% to 51%.

How so? 
Gore won 54% of the female vote in 2000.	


2 - PARTY-ID									
This critical statistic changed from 38 Dem/35 Rep/27 Ind from
the preliminary to 37/37/26 in the final.

How so?
In the PRIOR THREE elections, it was a CONSTANT 38/35/27.

	

3 - HOW THEY VOTED IN 2000														
From the Preliminary poll:							
The total weighted vote (for Kerry and Bush) is 122.83
million, which EXCEEDS the actual 122.26 million votes by
570,000.

How so?
For 41% of respondents to have voted for Bush in 2000, he must
have had at least 50.13 (0.41* 122.26) million votes.

That's possible, but unlikely, since he received just 50.45
million votes in 2000. And more than 300,000 must have died or
decided not to vote.														
If we consider that the Exit poll MOE is 1.0%, then perhaps
40% (or 48.90 million) may have voted for Bush in 2000. 

That's more likely. 		

So, if anything, you would expect that the 41% would have been
adjusted DOWN to at least 40% TO MATCH THE 2000 VOTE.	

BUT NO....
				
In the Final Poll:								
The Bush 2000 voter percentage INCREASED to 43%.			

For 43% of respondents to have voted for Bush in 2000, he must
have had AT LEAST 52.57 (0.43* 122.26) million votes.  

THAT IS TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
DEAD PEOPLE USUALLY STAY DEAD.

His 2000 vote total was only 50.45 million, a difference of
2.12 million. We KNOW that SOME of the Bush 2000 voters MUST
have died or did not vote this time.
	
From the Preliminary poll:														
For 38% of respondents to have voted for Gore in 2000, then
Gore must have had AT LEAST 46.46 (0.38 * 122.26) million
votes.
We know he did. 

His vote total was 51.0 million, a difference of 4.54 million
from the poll. So 38% is possible.	
	

From the Final Poll:
For 37% of respondents to have voted for Gore in 2000, then
Gore must have had AT LEAST 45.24 (0.37 * 122.26) million
votes.

The difference is 5.66 million. 
So 37% is possible.		

In any case, the 43-37% spread is IMPOSSIBLE.														
SO IN THE ONE AND ONLY DEMOGRAPHIC (THE 2000 VOTE) IN WHICH
THE FINAL EXIT POLL CAN BE CHECKED AGAINST AN ACTUAL HISTORIC
FACT, IT TURNS OUT TO BE ABSOLUTELY INCORRECT.
	

4- VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000	
Of the 21 million (17%) new voters and those who did not vote
in 2000, most went solidly for Kerry (57-41%) in the
preliminary.
	
In the final, it was revised to 54-45%.														
But we have already seen that in this very category, the 43%
statistic for Bush 2000 voters is impossible.

So why should we believe the 3% downward revision in Kerry
share of those who did not vote in 2000?														
It is ABSOLUTELY A FACT, AND EVEN THE FINAL EXIT POLL SHOWS:
Kerry won the majority new voters.
	
So how did he lose?														
		
Here is a table which shows just how many votes were effected
by each of the category weightings and shares, for both
preliminary and final exit polls.

Kerry:
KP = Preliminary Exit Poll%, KF = Final, KChg = Change 
KVP= Preliminary Exit Poll Vote, KVF = Final Exit poll vote 
KChg = Change in votes between Preliminary and Final.

The same stats are given for Bush.

Total votes (based on the percentages * 122.26 million)  and
the weighted percentages are displayed in the last two lines
of each category.

There were 13047 respondents in the preliminary exit poll.
There were 13660 respondents (only 613 more) included in the
final  poll.

There were a total of 122.26 million votes.

					
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Male
	46%	46%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	26.43	24.75	24.75	30.93	-1.69	1.69
Female
	54%	54%	0%	54%	51%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	35.65	33.67	33.67	31.69	-1.98	1.98
	100%	100%				-3.0%			3.0%	62.08	58.42	58.42	62.62	-3.67	3.67
										50.78%	47.78%	47.78%	51.22%	-3.00%	3.00%
															
															
EDUCATION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No
H.S.	4%	4%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	2.54	2.45	2.45	2.40	-0.10	0.10
H.S.
	22%	22%	0%	51%	47%	-4%	48%	52%	4%	13.72	12.64	12.64	13.99	-1.08	1.08
College
	31%	32%	1%	47%	46%	-1%	51%	54%	3%	17.81	17.43	18.00	21.13	-0.38	1.14
ColGrad	26%	26%	0%	48%	46%	-2%	50%	52%	2%	15.26	14.62	14.62	16.53	-0.64	0.64
PostG
	17%	16%	-1%	58%	55%	-3%	40%	44%	4%	12.05	11.43	10.76	8.61	-0.62	0.83
	100%	100%				-2.40%			3.00%	61.39	58.57	58.46	62.65	-2.81	3.78
										50.21%	47.91%	47.82%	51.24%	-2.30%	3.09%
															
															
RACE AND GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
WM	36%	36%	0%	41%	37%	-4%	58%	62%	4%	18.05	16.29	16.29	27.29	-1.76	1.76
WF	41%	41%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	23.56	22.06	22.06	27.57	-1.50	1.50
NWM	10%	10%	0%	69%	67%	-2%	28%	30%	2%	8.44	8.19	8.19	3.67	-0.24	0.24
NWF	13%	13%	0%	77%	75%	-2%	22%	24%	2%	12.24	11.92	11.92	3.81	-0.32	0.32
	100%	100%				-2.75%			2.75%	62.28	58.45	58.45	62.34	-3.83	3.83
										50.94%	47.81%	47.81%	50.99%	-3.13%	3.13%
	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
AGE	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
18-29
	17%	17%	0%	56%	54%	-2%	43%	45%	2%	11.64	11.22	11.22	9.35	-0.42	0.42
30-44
	27%	29%	2%	49%	46%	-3%	50%	53%	3%	16.17	15.18	16.31	18.79	-0.99	0.99
45-59
	30%	30%	0%	51%	48%	-3%	47%	51%	4%	18.71	17.61	17.61	18.71	-1.10	1.47
60+	26%	24%	-2%	48%	46%	-2%	51%	54%	3%	15.26	14.62	13.50	15.84	-0.64	0.95
	100%	100%				-2.5%			3.0%	61.78	58.64	58.64	62.69	-3.14	3.83
										50.53%	47.96%	47.96%	51.28%	-2.57%	3.13%
INCOME	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
0-$15K
	9%	8%	-1%	66%	63%	-3%	33%	36%	3%	7.26	6.93	6.16	3.52	-0.33	0.33
$15-30
	15%	15%	0%	59%	57%	-2%	39%	42%	3%	10.82	10.45	10.45	7.70	-0.37	0.55
$30-50
	22%	22%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	13.99	13.45	13.45	13.18	-0.54	0.54
$50-75
	23%	23%	0%	45%	43%	-2%	53%	56%	3%	12.65	12.09	12.09	15.75	-0.56	0.84
$75-100
	13%	14%	1%	49%	45%	-4%	50%	55%	5%	7.79	7.15	7.70	9.41	-0.64	0.79
$100-150
	11%	11%	0%	45%	42%	-3%	53%	57%	4%	6.05	5.65	5.65	7.67	-0.40	0.54
$150-200
	4%	4%	0%	47%	42%	-5%	53%	58%	5%	2.30	2.05	2.05	2.84	-0.24	0.24
$200+
	3%	3%	0%	41%	35%	-6%	58%	63%	5%	1.50	1.28	1.28	2.31	-0.22	0.18
	100%	100%				-3.38%			3.75%	62.36	59.06	58.84	62.38	-3.30	4.02
										51.01%	48.31%	48.13%	51.02%	-2.70%	3.29%
IDEOLOGY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Liberal
	22%	21%	-1%	86%	85%	-1%	12%	13%	1%	23.13	22.86	21.82	3.34	-0.27	0.27
Moderate
	45%	45%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	31.36	29.71	29.71	24.76	-1.65	2.20
Conservative
	33%	34%	1%	16%	15%	-1%	82%	84%	2%	6.46	6.05	6.24	34.92	-0.40	0.81
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.33%	60.95	58.62	57.77	63.01	-2.32	3.28
										49.85%	47.95%	47.25%	51.54%	-1.90%	2.68%
RELIGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Protestant	53%	53%	0%	43%	40%	-3%	56%	59%	3%	27.86	25.92	25.92	38.23	-1.94	1.94
Catholic
	27%	27%	0%	50%	47%	-3%	49%	52%	3%	16.51	15.51	15.51	17.17	-0.99	0.99
Jewish	3%	3%	0%	77%	74%	-3%	23%	25%	2%	2.82	2.71	2.71	0.92	-0.11	0.07
Other
	7%	7%	0%	75%	74%	-1%	20%	23%	3%	6.42	6.33	6.33	1.97	-0.09	0.26
None
	10%	10%	0%	70%	67%	-3%	29%	31%	2%	8.56	8.19	8.19	3.79	-0.37	0.24
	100%	100%				-2.60%			2.60%	62.17	58.67	58.67	62.07	-3.50	3.51
										50.85%	47.99%	47.99%	50.77%	-2.86%	2.87%
MILITARY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Yes
	18%	18%	0%	43%	41%	-2%	55%	57%	2%	9.46	9.02	9.02	12.54	-0.44	0.44
No
	82%	82%	0%	53%	50%	-3%	46%	49%	3%	53.13	50.13	50.13	49.12	-3.01	3.01
	100%	100%				-2.5%			2.5%	62.60	59.15	59.15	61.67	-3.48	3.48
										51.20%	48.38%	48.38%	50.44%	-2.84%	2.84%
WHEN DECIDED	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Today
	6%	5%	-1%	53%	52%	-1%	40%	45%	5%	3.89	3.81	3.18	2.75	-0.07	0.37
Last3Days
	3%	4%	1%	53%	55%	2%	41%	42%	1%	1.94	2.02	2.69	2.05	0.07	0.04
Last Week
	2%	2%	0%	48%	48%	0%	51%	51%	0%	1.17	1.17	1.17	1.25	0.00	0.00
Last Month
	10%	10%	0%	60%	54%	-6%	38%	44%	6%	7.34	6.60	6.60	5.38	-0.73	0.73
Before
	79%	79%	0%	50%	46%	-4%	50%	53%	3%	48.29	44.43	44.43	51.19	-3.86	2.90
	100%	100%				-1.80%			3.00%	62.63	58.04	58.07	62.62	-4.60	4.03
										51.23%	47.47%	47.50%	51.22%	-3.76%	3.30%
															
															
REGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
East	22%	22%	0%	58%	56%	-2%	41%	43%	2%	15.60	15.06	15.06	11.57	-0.54	0.54
Midwest	26%	26%	0%	50%	48%	-2%	49%	51%	2%	15.89	15.26	15.26	16.21	-0.64	0.64
South	31%	32%	1%	44%	42%	-2%	54%	58%	4%	16.68	15.92	16.43	22.69	-0.76	1.52
West	21%	20%	-1%	53%	50%	-3%	45%	49%	4%	13.61	12.84	12.23	11.98	-0.77	1.03
	100%	100%				-1.98%			3.00%	61.78	59.08	58.98	62.45	-2.70	3.72
										50.53%	48.32%	48.24%	51.08%	-2.21%	3.04%
															
PARTY ID	(Rep 36% in 11027)														
Democrat
	38%	37%	-1%	90%	89%	-1%	9%	11%	2%	41.81	41.35	40.26	4.98	-0.46	0.93
Republican
	35%	37%	2%	7%	6%	-1%	92%	93%	1%	3.00	2.57	2.71	42.07	-0.43	0.43
Independent	27%	26%	-1%	52%	49%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	17.17	16.17	15.58	15.26	-0.99	0.99
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.00%	61.97	60.09	58.55	62.30	-1.88	2.35
										50.69%	49.15%	47.89%	50.96%	-1.54%	1.92%
															
VOTED IN 2000	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No	17%	17%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	11.85	11.22	11.22	9.35	-0.62	0.83
Gore	38%	37%	-1%	91%	90%	-1%	8%	10%	2%	42.28	41.81	40.71	4.52	-0.46	0.93
Bush	41%	43%	2%	9%	9%	0%	90%	91%	1%	4.51	4.51	4.73	47.84	0.00	0.50
Other	4%	3%	-1%	65%	71%	6%	13%	21%	8%	3.18	3.47	2.60	0.77	0.29	0.39
	100%	100%				0.50%			3.75%	61.81	61.02	59.27	62.49	-0.79	2.65
										50.56%	49.91%	48.48%	51.11%	-0.65%	2.17%
															
											
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