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Reply #9: You asked for a credible FACT. Well, here it is. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-14-05 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. You asked for a credible FACT. Well, here it is.
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 09:30 PM by TruthIsAll
IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?

Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM by TruthIsAll

A total of 122 million voted in 2004.

According to the FINAL exit poll of 13660, 43% voted for Bush
in 2000, or 52.46 million. Only one problem with that: Bush
only got 50.5 million votes in 2000.

The FINAL weighted exit poll was OFF by 2 million votes (4%).

According to the PRELIMINARY exit poll of 13047, 41% voted
for Bush in 2000, or 50.02 million.

The PRELIMINARY exit poll was MORE ACCURATE than the FINAL.
It was only off by .50 million votes. That's exactly 1%,
which happens to be the exit poll margin of error. And may still be correct.

NOW FOLLOW THIS CLOSELY:
THERE MAY INDEED HAVE BEEN FEWER VOTERS WHO SAID THEY VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000, AND MAYBE .50 MILLION BUSH VOTERS IN 2000 DECIDED TO VOTE FOR KERRY IN 2004. THE 50.02 MILLION THE PRELIM. EXIT POLL SAID VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000 IS VERY POSSIBLY CORRECT TO WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND VOTES (LIKE WITHIN 0.1%).

SO THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL, WHICH KERRY WON BY 51-48, MAY HAVE BEEN EVEN MORE ACCURATE THAN WE THOUGHT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE THAT 52.46 MILLION COULD HAVE VOTED FOR BUSH, WHEN ONLY 50.5 MILLION DID.
SO THE FINAL, CORRUPTED EXIT POLL IS JUST THAT - A MANIPULATION OF THE CORRECT ORIGINAL EXIT POLL TO CONFIRM A STOLEN ELECTION.

IS THAT LOGIC CREDIBLE ENOUGH FOR YOU?
AND ARE YOU REALLY A DEMOCRAT?
IF SO, YOU SHOULD BE VERY PISSED-OFF BY NOW.

The logical question becomes: If the PRELIMINARY was more
accurate, why was its weighting adjusted from 41% to 43% in
the FINAL?

In the PRELIMINARY:
20.74 million (17%) did not vote in 2000.
Bush won 39% or 8.08 mm of these voters.
Bush won 41% or 50.02 mm of those who voted in 2000.
Bush won 13% or 0.63 mm of the 4% who voted for Nader et al.

So the total Bush vote was 58.73 million, according to the
preliminary poll. His actual vote was 62.028 million.
Where did he get these 3.3 million votes?

In the FINAL:
Bush won 45% or 9.33 mm of the new voters.
Bush won 43% or 52.46 mm of those who voted in 2000
(IMPOSSIBLE).
Bush won 21% or 0.76 mm of the (revised) 3% who voted for
Nader.

Therefore, the total Bush vote is 62.55 million, according to
the FINAL exit poll (which we have shown to be in error by
4%).

So which do you believe?
Did Bush win 58.73 million votes as determined by the
PRELIMINARY poll of 13047 respondents, and which has been
proven (at least for the voter history weights) to be
accurate to within 1%?

Or did Bush win 62.55 million votes, as determined by the
FINAL exit poll? The FINAL was adjusted to match the recorded
vote and is in error by 4%, according to the adjusted voter
history weights applied to the total recorded vote.

CNN 7:58pm 11027 Sample WP 12:22am 13047 Sample CNN 2:04pm 13660 Sample

Mix1 Bush Kerry Nader Mix2 Bush Kerry Nader Mix3 Bush Kerry Nader


VOTED IN
2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.0% 39% 59% 1% 17% 39% 59% 1% 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 38.0% 8% 91% 1% 38% 8% 91% 1% 37% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 41.0% 90% 9% 0% 41% 90% 9% 0% 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 4.0% 13% 65% 16% 4% 13% 65% 16% 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 47.09% 50.90% 1.19% 100% 47.09% 50.90% 1.19% 100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.26%

GENDER
Male 46.0% 51% 47% 1% 46% 52% 47% 1% 46% 55% 44% 0
Female 54.0% 45% 54% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1% 54% 48% 51% 0
100% 47.76% 50.78% 1.00% 100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00% 100% 51.22% 47.78% 0.00%

PARTY
ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38.0% 9% 90% 1% 38% 9% 90% 1% 37% 11% 89% 0
Rep 36.0% 92% 7% 1% 35% 92% 7% 0% 37% 93% 6% 0
Ind 26.0% 45% 52% 2% 27% 45% 52% 2% 26% 48% 49% 1%
100% 48.24% 50.24% 1.26% 100% 47.77% 50.69% 0.92% 100% 49.69% 49.15% 0.27%




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