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Reply #27: This is your most important result [View All]

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andym Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. This is your most important result
This thread represents your most important result.

Pointing out the impossibility of 43+-1% for Bush is important because it clearly shows the final weighted/corrected exit poll is inconsistent/flawed.

And it is consistent with the earlier exit poll being more accurate and the idea that Bush got fewer votes than the official results reported.

But when you raise the possibility that even the earlier (unweighted?) exit poll is also potentially inconsistent, you have provided ammunition for the skeptics who claim that there was error in the exit poll methodology. Because once you show that one aspect of the supposedly good data is impossible, it makes the entire set suspect. I think you should investigate this latter point further before emphasizing it. Perhaps you should include the 1% MOE which adds another possible 1,220,000 to the pool of possible voters who have passed on. Remember its 41+-1%, so at the lower end of the range it's 40% * 122 million, or 48.8 million, which is 1.7 million less than Bush received in 2000.

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