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IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 04:31 AM
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IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?
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Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM by TruthIsAll
A total of 122 million voted in 2004.

According to the FINAL exit poll of 13660, 43% voted for Bush
in 2000, or 52.46 million. Only one problem with that: Bush
only got 50.5 million votes in 2000.

The FINAL weighted exit poll was OFF by 2 million votes (4%).

According to the PRELIMINARY exit poll of 13047, 41% voted for
Bush in 2000, or 50.02 million. 

The PRELIMINARY exit poll was MORE ACCURATE than the FINAL. It
was only off by .50 million votes. That's exactly 1%, which
happens to be the exit poll margin of error.

The logical question becomes: If the PRELIMINARY was more
accurate, why was its weighting adjusted from 41% to 43% in
the FINAL?

In the PRELIMINARY:
20.74 million (17%) did not vote in 2000.
Bush won 39% or  8.08 mm of these voters.
Bush won 41% or 50.02 mm of those who voted in 2000.
Bush won 13% or  0.63 mm of the 4% who voted for Nader et al.

So the total Bush vote was 58.73 million, according to the
preliminary poll. His actual vote was 62.028 million.
Where did he get these 3.3 million votes?

In the FINAL: 
Bush won 45% or 9.33 mm of the new voters.
Bush won 43% or 52.46 mm of those who voted in 2000
(IMPOSSIBLE).
Bush won 21% or  0.76 mm of the (revised) 3% who voted for
Nader.

Therefore, the total Bush vote is 62.55 million, according to
the FINAL exit poll (which we have shown to be in error by
4%).

So which do you believe?
Did Bush win 58.73 million votes as determined by the
PRELIMINARY poll of 13047 respondents, and which has been
proven (at least for the voter history weights) to be accurate
to within 1%?

Or did Bush win 62.55 million votes, as determined by the
FINAL exit poll? The FINAL was adjusted to match the recorded
vote and is in error by 4%, according to the adjusted voter
history weights applied to the total recorded vote.

	CNN	7:58pm	11027	Sample		WP	12:22am	13047	Sample	CNN	2:04pm	13660	Sample
     
	Mix1	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix2	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix3	Bush	Kerry	Nader

		
VOTED IN
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.0%	39%	59%	1%		17%	39%	59%	1%		17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38.0%	8%	91%	1%		38%	8%	91%	1%		37%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	41.0%	90%	9%	0%		41%	90%	9%	0%		43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	4.0%	13%	65%	16%		4%	13%	65%	16%		3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%

GENDER
Male 	46.0%	51%	47%	1%		46%	52%	47%	1%		46%	55%	44%	0
Female 	54.0%	45%	54%	1%		54%	45%	54%	1%		54%	48%	51%	0
	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
														
PARTY
ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38.0%	9%	90%	1%		38%	9%	90%	1%		37%	11%	89%	0
Rep 	36.0%	92%	7%	1%		35%	92%	7%	0%		37%	93%	6%	0
Ind	26.0%	45%	52%	2%		27%	45%	52%	2%		26%	48%	49%	1%
	100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%		100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%		100%	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
														
												
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