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Reply #45: There are state MOE's and national MOE"s. [View All]

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jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #30
45. There are state MOE's and national MOE"s.
Edited on Wed Mar-16-05 12:21 AM by jkd
According to Mitofsky they averaged about 4% for the states. The national poll had a MOE of about 3%. When only 250 of 225,000 precincts are polled in a national sample, there is definitely a cluster effect.
http://exit-poll.net/faq.html#a15 .
http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/MethodsStatemen...

The 1% MOE that TIA keeps bringing up is over-all poll disparity after the final weightings are completed. Prior to the election the MOE for the national sample was established at 3%. At each stage of the exit poll reporting on election day that figure was at one percent. It didnt change with each additional report. Thats the final MOE. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp - srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitPolls_national.html.

These reports were never intended for public consumption and the percentage was simply the MOE desired for the poll after the final weightings.

If 250 precincts with an average MOE of 10% were used nationally for a simple random sample, they wouldnt have been able to predict the 1964, Johnson/Goldwater race, never mind this one.

The national sample is stratified and multi-staged, as are the state samples. They are not simple random samples. The unadjusted MOE for the national was not 1%. It was +/-3%.
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