Reply #12: Answers

[Mistwell]

Which statement is true about why all prior early exit polls since their invention in 1988 showing the Democrats getting more votes than the actual vote reported (sometimes by as much as 8% more than the actual vote):

1) A massive secret Republican conspiracy spanning the entire nation involving thousands of people intent on defrauding the electorate, all at great risk and to no avail in every year except this one;
2) The early exit polls are inaccurate, which would disprove all your hard work over the last six months.

Which is it TIA? Why are you so afraid of answering the question?

Why did you avoid that question again, TIA? What do you have to hide?

"You say "They need a lot more money to do a proper exit poll". Are you saying this with a straight face?"

Not only a straight face, but with the backing of pretty much every expert on the subject on the planet. Other countries pay for an exit poll to specifically catch fraud, and they pay a LOT more so that the pollsters can have a LOT more people on duty to ask people the questions at the polling stations. To really test for fraud, you need people in the rural areas as well as the urban ones.

And, BEFORE the exit poll mess all started, I remember some posts BY YOU that agreed with this, that the exit polls needed more people on them, so at this point you want to explain this complete reversal of yours?

"And you claim that I am the one abusing the data, for which Mitofsky claims a 1% MOE?"

Mitofsky specifically claims a 1% MOE for the demographics conclusions within the poll only. He specifically says that the "how people voted" data is NOT covered by the 1% MOE. You friggen know that too!

"You contradict yourself. Yes, the Dem percntages are always overstated in the polls. For a variety of reasons. Yes, natural spoilage is a major factor in the discrepancy. But there is also the question of fraud. And even you agree that fraud has occurred. But you won't accept the fact that the early, uncontaminated exit polls catch it. Or that the final exit poll was manipulated with weights adjusted to match the a corrupted vote count."

It is not a contradiction to agree that you think there was fraud, but to also think the exit polls are so flawed as to be incapable of detecting that fraud. I don't know how much fraud there was, and whether it was enough to tip the scale to one side or the other. I do know that the exit polls, as conducted in this nation, are far more flawed than the actual vote count itself.

"You are in total denial. Your shrillness indicates that deep down you know you have lost the argument. There is no longer anyplace for you to squirm. The more you protest, the worse it gets."

That is incredibly funny. You're the one who dodges the question at every opportunity (and did it again, for the 24th time, this post). You're the one so blatantly in denial, that as the number of people who disagree with you increases, the more entrenched you become on this topic.

"The facts are clear to the vast majority of DUers, yet you and a few die-hards continue to ignore them. What is it? Pride? What would it take for you to see the light and accept the truth: this election was stolen every which way from Sunday."

Most people in this particular forum of this particular board agree there was fraud (as do I). It looks, however, like the overwhelming majority of people TODAY no longer agree with you about the exit polls. Your positive responses are WAY down, as are your total number of responses. Other fraud threads are not encountering that level of a problem, showing it's not a systematic thing with the fraud issue in general, but just your own position on the issue.

"You don't have to listen to me. Just listen to the professionals at UScountvotes.org - those renowned mathematics and statistical professors who have come right out in support of Freeman et al."

First, they are not exit poll experts, they are partisan statisticians. Second, they have ignored numerous and detailed responses to their work showing massive gaps and outright inaccuracies in their work. As a statistician yourself, you know damn well that you can find a dozen people to agree with any position you take...that doesn't make it the right position.

"So, Mistwell, once again, answer the question:
Do you believe the Final Exit Poll with it's bogus, contradictory weights?
Or do you believe the Preliminary Poll?
Which one is it?"

The answer is I DO NOT BELIEVE EITHER ONE. I've made that so clear a child could figure it out. Exit polls, as conducted in the US to date, are not up to the task of predicting an election outcome. Hence, their margin or error is set for demographics data, and not "how people vote" data. You want a good exit poll that can actually track how people vote in a manner that is accurate to predict an election outcome, then you and everyone else in the nation is going to have to agree to pay (a LOT) for that exit poll.

"It's YOUR egotism, not mine, which is at question.
I've been consistent from Day One."

Yes, you have. Consistency, as they say, is the hobgoblin of little minds. You have consistently said that the exit polls can be used to detect fraud in the actual vote, knowing from day one that they cannot and that the MOE is specifically stated as not being good for anything other than the demographic data of race, gender, and geographic region. Talk about ego!

"The vast majority of DUers believe my work is credible, even more so today than in the months prior to the election."

I disagree, as stated above.

Which statement is true about why all prior early exit polls since their invention in 1988 showing the Democrats getting more votes than the actual vote reported (sometimes by as much as 8% more than the actual vote):

1) A massive secret Republican conspiracy spanning the entire nation involving thousands of people intent on defrauding the electorate, all at great risk and to no avail in every year except this one;
2) The early exit polls are inaccurate, which would disprove all your hard work over the last six months.

Which is it TIA? Why are you so afraid of answering the question?