Reply #94: Pattern for missing turnout data in the 2004 working paper?

[pat_k]

According to Table 1 of the Residual Vote in the 2004 Election working paper (referenced in previous post), 15 states are missing turnout data:
10 of the 15 are states that Bush won by more than 10 points.
1 of the 15 is a state that Kerry won by more than 10 points.

Seem a little skewed to you?

3 of the 6 states with the smallest margin of victory in the election went to Kerry. Two of those states are missing turnout data:
WI- the smallest margin of victory in the entire election
PA - which was the 6th smallest margin of victory

Here are the states I assume were not included in the analysis due to missing data.

Oklahoma
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 21.88%
2004 Margin Bush 31.14%
Bush 65.57%, Kerry 34.43%, Other 0.00%

Kansas
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 20.80%
2004 Margin Bush 25.38%
Bush 62.00%, Kerry 36.62%, Other 1.37%

Texas
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 21.32%
2004 Margin Bush 22.86%
Bush 61.09%, Kerry 38.22%, Other 0.69%

Mississippi
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 16.91
2004 Margin Bush 19.72
Bush 59.44%, Kerry 39.72%, Other 0.83%

South Carolina
No turnout data 2004
2000 Margin Bush 15.93
2004 Margin Bush 17.08
Bush 57.98%, Kerry 40.90%, 1.12%

Louisiana
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 7.68%
2004 Margin Bush 14.51%
Bush 56.72%, Kerry 42.22%, Other 1.06%

Arkansas
No turnout data 2000
2000 Margin Bush 5.44%
2004 Margin Bush 9.76%
Bush 54.31%, Kerry 44.55%, Other 1.15%

Missouri
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Bush 3.34%
2004 Margin Bush 7.20%
Bush 53.30%, Kerry 46.10%, Other 0.60%

Colorado
No turnout data 2000
2000 Margin Bush 8.36%
2004 Margin Bush 4.76%
Bush 51.71%, Kerry 47.94%, Other 1.25%

Wisconsin
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Gore 0.22%
2004 Margin Kerry 0.38%
* Smallest Margin of Victory
Bush 49.32%, Kerry 49.70%, Other 0.98%

Pennsylvania
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Gore 4.17%
2004 Margin Kerry 2.50%
* Ranks 6th on the "smallest margin" list. The most populous of the 10 "smallest margin" states.
Bush 48.42%, Kerry 50.92%, Other 0.65%

Minnesota
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Gore 2.40%
2004 Margin Kerry 3.48%
Bush 47.61%, Kerry 51.09%, Other 1.30%

Delaware
No turnout data 2004
2000 Margin Gore 13.06%
2004 Margin Kerry 7.59%
Bush 45.75%, Kerry 53.35%, Other 0.90%

Maine
No turnout data 2000 or 2004
2000 Margin Gore 5.11%
2004 Margin Kerry 9.00%
Bush 44.58%, Kerry 53.57%, Other 1.85%

Rhode Island
No turnout data 2004
2000 Margin Gore 29.08%
2004 Margin Kerry 20.75
Bush 38.76%, Kerry 59.42%, Other 1.91%