You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #15: Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls? [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
15. Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls?
The final exit polls are weighted to match the vote total. My understanding is that this is supposed to correct errors in the exit polls so that the details are meaningful for understanding the breakdown of actual voters.

Since voters don't provide demographic information with each vote, there is no way to tell if the weighted exit poll details match the details of the actual voters.

In each of TIA's 9 points above, the weighted exit polls are called into question due to significant deviation from the 2000 final exit polls. The comparison to the 2000 vote, point number 4, is particularly interesting because it is in direct contradiction to the facts.

I'm wondering why the media always seems to only publish the most recent exit poll numbers on their web sites. If there is nothing sinister going on then why wouldn't they provide a historical trend of polling results from throughout the day?

Why doesn't the media provide both the final weighted and un-weighted numbers? Why is it that they seem hell-bent on keeping the process behind exit polling a mystery?

Finally, if the un-weighted final exit polls were wrong as Mitofsky claims then what is the purpose in weighting it at all? Is there a reason to believe that when weighted to the final vote the other details of the exit poll would not still be flawed?

Clearly, TIA's point number 4 shows that the question of Gore respondents can't be trusted. Given that fact alone, I don't see how anyone serious about researching the 2004 vote would trust any of the details in the weighted final poll.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC