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Reply #15: Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls? [View All]

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dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 07:13 PM
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15. Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls?
The final exit polls are weighted to match the vote total. My understanding is that this is supposed to correct errors in the exit polls so that the details are meaningful for understanding the breakdown of actual voters.

Since voters don't provide demographic information with each vote, there is no way to tell if the weighted exit poll details match the details of the actual voters.

In each of TIA's 9 points above, the weighted exit polls are called into question due to significant deviation from the 2000 final exit polls. The comparison to the 2000 vote, point number 4, is particularly interesting because it is in direct contradiction to the facts.


I'm wondering why the media always seems to only publish the most recent exit poll numbers on their web sites. If there is nothing sinister going on then why wouldn't they provide a historical trend of polling results from throughout the day?

Why doesn't the media provide both the final weighted and un-weighted numbers? Why is it that they seem hell-bent on keeping the process behind exit polling a mystery?

Finally, if the un-weighted final exit polls were wrong as Mitofsky claims then what is the purpose in weighting it at all? Is there a reason to believe that when weighted to the final vote the other details of the exit poll would not still be flawed?


Clearly, TIA's point number 4 shows that the question of Gore respondents can't be trusted. Given that fact alone, I don't see how anyone serious about researching the 2004 vote would trust any of the details in the weighted final poll.


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