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Reply #9: This "final weighting" is just ridiculous! [View All]

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 09:03 PM
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9. This "final weighting" is just ridiculous!
For one thing, the Dems had a blowout success in new voter registrations in 2004--Dems 57%, vs. Repubs 41%. Now think about all those new Democratic voter registrants. They certainly didn't register and vote for the first time to vote for Bush! And think about HOW they were prodded to register and vote, and by whom--family, friends, co-workers, the repeat Gore 2000 voters, probably still angry over the 2000 stolen election and everything that's happened since (unjust war, etc.). Are THOSE people dragging their relatives and friends to the polls---to vote for Bush?? Did they do that, and then themselves forget to vote? And Kerry also got 64% of the 3rd party vote, according to polls cited by Dr. Steven Freeman. The "final weighting" is UNREAL. It is B.S.!

Here's Freeman's analysis:

Table 2.2. Expected Presidential Votes based on Changes From the 2000 Election

----------Dem (G or K)---------Bush ------------3rd Party--------Tot

2000:----50,999,897 (48%)---50,456,002 (48%)---3,949,201 (4%)---105,405,100
2004:----57,890,314 (48%)---61,194,773 (51%)---1,170,071 (1%)---120,255,158

Increase:---6,890,417--------10,738,771----minus(2,779,130)-----14,850,058 (14%)


(Distributing the votes on a reasonable expectation formula:)

(1) 95%
of 00 vote----48,400,00------47,900,000---------3,800,000------100,000,000

(2) 3rd
Party -----2,300,000 (64%)------600,000 (17%)
-----------------------------------------------New voters: 20,200,000

(3) New
Voters
distrib'ed ----11,500,000 (57%)---8,300,000 (41%)

Expected
Total --------62,200,000-------56,800,000


Discre-
pancy --------(4,300,000)-------4,400.000


Freeman explains this very simply in his section entitled, "The Numbers Dont Add Up." He says that, in 2000, Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million, but in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 3.3 millionyet there were only two major changes in the voting population: 1) the 3rd party vote declined by 2.8 million, and 2) get-out-the-vote campaigns. 95% of the 2000 electorate voted in the 2004 election. That gives Kerry a base of 48.4 million (Gore voters), and Bush 47.9 million. Election night polls showed that Kerry got 64% of ex-Nader voters (2.5 million) and Bush got only 17% (600,000). In 2004, Dems beat Repubs in new voter registration by 57% to 41%. And when you add these three blocks of voters togetherthe base vote from 2000, the 3rd Party vote, and new voter registration"it looks as though Kerry somehow received 4,300,000 votes less than he should have, and Bush somehow received over 4,400,000 votes more than he should have."

----

"Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election" - http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

----

Kerry won by 4 to 8 million votes--probably more (when you take spoilage and racist vote suppression into account).

----

This B.S. from Mitofsky and the BushCons reminds me of "Church History" taught to me in a Catholic grammar school in the 1950s. Mind-bogglingly false. Twisted. Warped. Every story, every paragraph full of self-serving lies.

But it taught me a thing or two about propaganda. For that I will be eternally grateful.
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