Reply #30: This argument is circular...

[anaxarchos]

NEP asserts that their sample is random. That is what they sell. The proof is in the historical accuracy and in it's acceptance. Many news organizations have abandoned their own attempts at exit-polls in order to subscribe and most academics begrudgingly concede that Mitofsky is able to generate a random sample (while often bemoaning the "black-arts" that get him there).

As you must know, NEP recently published a report on precisely whether the poll results reflected a random population. They concluded that they did (or exactly the same thing, by arguing that any inaccuracy was due to in precinct error). That report has come under criticism but not, as far as I am aware, for the overall randomness of the poll but for the veracity of WPE.

It is not for TIA to "prove" that NEP polled a random population. That is for NEP to do and they have defended that. If you don't buy it, you have a bitch with NEP and those who do buy it. Not "believing" in exit polls in such a fundamental way is not common.

Alternatively, if you buy into NEP, TIA's calculations are legit.

The bottom line is that it is all data and all equally subject to test.