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Reply #27: Ahhh...we're talking 'raw' numbers... [View All]

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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Ahhh...we're talking 'raw' numbers...
I did not know what you meant by 'pristine' (not criticizing).
I thought you were saying they were the late night numbers, the ones Mystery Pollster says are the best to use (post election, not yet adjusted to the vote tally).
Which are not available, that I know of, for previous years.

Actually Mistwell had posted them before that, and insisted that they were comparable to weighted/un-adjusted numbers 0f 2004. It took me a few attempts to get her to read Ruy Teixeira's analysis that I kept quoting for her.
"Consider this. The unweightedcompletely unweighteddata from the last four presidential
elections before this year are as follows:"

Thanx for the link, I ended up reading quite a bit there. But I did have a question on something that stuck out while I was reading.
Here it is....

"Warren Mitofsky, who ran the 2004 exit poll operation along with partner Joe Lenski, wrote the following in the Spring 2003 issue of Public Opinion Quarterly (p. 51):

An inspection of within-precinct error in the exit poll for senate and governor races in 1990, 1994 and 1998 shows an understatement of the Democratic candidate for 20 percent of the 180 polls in that time period and an overstatement 38 percent of the time...the most likely source of this error is differential non-response rates for Democrats and Republicans:"

Then I read this...

(MPollster is taking about the recently released raw data from Mitofski)
"The data do no disclose the actual precincts sampled.

In response to an email query, an Edison Mitofsky spokesperson referred me to the following passage from the Code of Professional Ethics and Practices of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR):

"Unless the respondent waives confidentiality for specified uses, we shall hold as privileged and confidential all information that might identify a respondent with his or her responses.""

To me, I see Mitofski willing to access for his report, the same information (different year) he later says his 'code of ethics' does not allow to be disclosed (10 months later).

I was just wondering what your thoughts on that might be.

Thanx in Advance
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