Reply #13: Yes, that is true..

[TruthIsAll]

Comparing the "Preliminary" 2004 exit poll to the "final", massaged polls of 1996 and 2000, was mixing apples and oranges. So now let's put that one to rest and focus on the crux of the issue. It was still very instructive to do the comparison. A number of important issues were brought into sharp relief.

Prior to these comparative posts, I focused on the 2004 National and State exit polls, since there has been no controversy over who won the popular vote in prior elections.

The crux of the issue is really just this:
If you believe that the final recorded votes accurately reflect voter intent, then the preliminary exit polls (before adjustment to the correct votes) must necvessarily be wrong.

However, if you believe the recorded votes do not accurately reflect voter intent, then the preliminary exit polls (before adjustment to the recorded/contaminated votes), may very well be right.

Many naysayers have assumed the former proposition. The exit polls are consistently wrong. Just compare them to the actual votes.
That argument is a logically bankrupt.

In fact, final recorded votes do not match voter intent - but for a number of reasons, some of which are universally accepted.

Much confusion has arisen from this simple fact: the vast majority of citizens, including myself, have assumed that prior to 2004, the election results were fairly accurate reflections of voter intent. We now know otherwise.

That's why the "preliminary" 13,047 exit poll is a Smoking Gun. It reflects what everyone believed the evening of Nov. 2 - a 51-48% Kerry win.

The Poll's 38/35/27 PartyID mix agreed with the final, massaged 1996 and 2000 exit polls - and the Dems won the popular vote in both.

Can we agree on the following:
1) According to Mitofsky, exit polls have always been "weighted" to match the actual vote.
2) Punched card/lever ballot vote spoilage, primarily in minority precincts, has always been a factor - and has cost democrats millions of votes.
3) There is no disputing the fact that touch screen computers are vulnerable to hacking.
4) Touch screens switched Kerry votes to Bush in 86 of 88 documented incidents.
5) There is no verified paper ballot for the touch screens.
6) Tabulation of optical scanned ballots uses proprietary software.
7) Recorded votes do not accurately reflect total voter intent.
8) As a result of the above, exit polls can never match the recorded votes, unless they are manipulated.
9) Exit polls reflect voter intent to within a 1% margin of error, as stipulated by Edison/Mitofsky in the notes accompanying the demographic summary of the "preliminary" poll of 13,047 respondents.
10) Exit polls have been very accurate worldwide in predicting the final vote and are used to monitor for fraud - but not in the U.S.