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Reply #12: Let me try to be clearer ......... [View All]

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Aussie_expat Donating Member (124 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Let me try to be clearer .........
Here's my issue and it seem's that we are talking in circles.

You state that the "pristine" Exit Polls ie: WP 13,047 are always right or within a slim MOE.

Is that correct?

If so then why do you use the "massaged" exit poll figures from the 1996, and 2000 elections for your spreadsheets married "pristine" 2004.

1) a-"Clinton won NEP: 48.76-40.58" = "massaged 1996
b-"Clinton: 52.2% Dole: 37.5%" = "pristine" 1996

2) a-"Gore won the NEP: 48.29-48.09" = massaged 2000
b-"Gore won 48.5% Bush: 46.2%" = "pristine 2000

3) a-"Bush won the NEP 51% Kerry 48%" = "massaged" 2004
b-"Kerry won 51% Kerry:48%" = "pristine" 2004

You are using 1a 2a and 3b for your formulas. or apples and oranges.

This is the problem that I have with your spreadsheets.

IMHO by using supposition and poetic licensing the results are rendered near useless.

This is why I believe that your work can get no traction outside of a few here at the DU.

Remember that I am not critical of your math but just the original figures that you have been using.








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