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SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 09:05 PM
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SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
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Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM by TruthIsAll
Let's analyze the last 3 National exit polls

1996
PARTY ID WEIGHTS:
DEM 39.4%
REP 34.7%
IND 25.9%

Clinton won the NEP: 48.76-40.58-8.50%
CLINTON WON THE VOTE: 49.20-40.70-8.40%
RIGHT ON THE MONEY. WITHIN 0.44%
.......................
2000
PARTY ID WEIGHTS:
DEM 39%
REP 35%
IND 26%

Gore won the NEP: 48.29-48.09-2.44%
GORE WON THE VOTE: 48.38-47.87-2.74%
RIGHT ON THE MONEY. WITHIN .09%
..............................
2004
PARTY-ID WEIGHTS:
FROM THE WP 13,047 RESPONDENT POLL
DEM 38%
REP 35%
IND 27%

Kerry won the NEP: 50.74-47.93-1.00%
BUSH WON THE VOTE: 50.73-48.28-0.99%
WHAT HAPPENED?
................................................

Here are links to the National Exit Poll demographics.
1996 CNN National Exit Poll 11/06/96
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit ...

2000 MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp


2004 WP (13047 respondents)/ CNN (13660)

Do you believe this poll of 13660 respondents?
CNN poll of 13660 respondents 11/03/04 Updated: 2:04 p.m.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U ...

Or do you believe this poll of the first 13047 respondents?
2004 Washington Post, 13,047 respondents, created 11/03/04

http:
//media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

WP (13047)
The exit poll shows Kerry winning all the demographics, by an average of 50.8-47.9%. The most critical demographics appeared on the NEP/Washington Post site on Nov 3 (shown below).

CNN (13660)
The 13047 poll was later expanded to include 613 additional respondents, bringing the total to 13,660 - and Bush magically won it by 51-48%.

The WP Poll had Kerry winning 51-48.
It included 95.5% (13,047) of the final CNN Poll total of 13,660 respondents.

Therefore, Bush must have won virtually ALL of the remaining 4.5% polled (613) to win the CNN Poll of 13660 by 51-48.

Something fishy is going on here.

Let's do the math:
In the WP Poll, Kerry won 6654 of the 13,047 polled (51-48%).
In the CNN Poll, he won 6693 of the 13,660 polled, a gain of just 39 votes in the additional 613 polled.

In the WP Poll of 13047, Bush won 6263 votes.
In the CNN Poll of 13660, he won 6967 (a gain of 704 votes).
It's impossible, since there were only 613 new votes (13660- 13047).

How do you explain it?

........Polled..................Kerry Bush
Bush 13660 51% 48% 6693 6967
Kerry 13047 51% 48% 6654 6263
...............................Gain 39 704






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