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Reply #48: The stats are not meant to "prove" anything. That was poetic license. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. The stats are not meant to "prove" anything. That was poetic license.
Edited on Wed Feb-23-05 12:31 AM by TruthIsAll
The purpose is to analyze the probabilities.

Bush climbed from 47.91% in the the "pristine" national exit poll of 13,047 respondents to 50.73% in the vote.
Probability = 1- NORMDIST (.5073 .4791, 1.0/1.96, TRUE)
***** 1 in 63 million ****

17 states deviated beyond the exit poll margin of error, all in favor of Bush.
Probability = 1- BINOMDIST (16,50, .025, TRUE)
***** 1 in 257 trillion ****

42 states deviated from the exit polls in favor of Bush.
Probability = 1- BINOMDIST (41, 50, 0.5, TRUE)
***** 1 in 1.7 million ****

Over 99% of documented machine "glitches" favored Bush.
The probability is just a hair from absolute zero.

There is no attempt to "prove" anything.
How could a probability analysis prove anything?
Bush may have gotten lucky.

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