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Reply #146: Party ID Exit Poll Probabilities [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 11:05 PM
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146. Party ID Exit Poll Probabilities
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 11:06 PM by TruthIsAll
OHIO

Final		Exit Poll	
Bush	51.06%	924	45.25%
Kerry	48.94%	1092	53.48%


Raw exit poll data				
2042	polled	
2.21%	MoE	

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
			
Dem		37%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		33%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		30%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	46.35%	53.02%	0.63%

P(Bush)	  1 in	66089			
P(Kerry)	1 in	6622			


.........................................
Change party ID to even split					

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem		34%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		33%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		33%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	47.28%	52.06%	0.66%

P(Bush)	  1 in	2456			
P(Kerry)	1 in	350			




Change partyID to favor Bush					
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem		33%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		37%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		30%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	49.75%	49.58%	0.67%

P(Bush)	  1 in	8			
P(Kerry)	1 in	4			
					
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