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Reply #137: Maybe Anderson is the first place we should canvas in Hamilton County [View All]

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #110
137. Maybe Anderson is the first place we should canvas in Hamilton County
Using Blue22's idea of checking Bush gains and Bush-Kerry spreads in each precinct, I looked at the 7 NEP precincts in Hamilton County to find the increased/decreased spreads for each (see below).

The precinct with the 2nd greatest increased/decreased spread is Anderson. (The raw spread = 12. The wgt spread = 19. Difference = 7.)

The precinct with the greatest increased/decreased spread is Cincinnati 22-E. But virtually all of the respondent records in the precinct have been down-weighted. If the data was weighted by 0.76 before any "final" manipulation, the pre-final weighted Kerry would be 35 and the weighted Bush would be 4.619. The difference between 35 and 31.285 is only 4, not 11 (see below).

(All precincts with large samples have been down-weighted. And precincts with small samples have been up-weighted. I am sure there must be a straight-forward way to remove this confounding factor.)

HAMILTON COUNTY NEP PRECINCTS - INCREASED/DECREASED SPREADS:

Precinct 49 (Anderson JJ) increased spread = 7
raw Kerry 11, raw Bush 23, wgt Kerry 11.021, wgt Bush 30.65

Precinct 51 (2205 Cincinnati 22-E) decreased spread = 11
raw Kerry 46, raw Bush 6, wgt Kerry 31.285, wgt Bush 4.619

Precinct 52 (Cincinnati 4-M) decreased spread = 2.8
raw Kerry 21, raw Bush 10, wgt Kerry 22.6, wgt Bush 14.4

Precinct 54 (Evendale) decreased spread = 1
raw Kerry 13, raw Bush 39, wgt Kerry 10.792, wgt Bush 35.929

Precinct 55 (Fairfax B) increased spread = 1.5
raw Kerry 8, raw Bush 8, wgt Kerry 17.977, wgt Bush 19.583

Precinct 57 (Harrison C) increased spread = 4
raw Kerry 12, raw Bush 16, wgt Kerry 17.475, wgt Bush 25.475

Precinct 63 (Sharonville 4-C) increased spread = 3
raw Kerry 14, raw Bush 33, wgt Kerry 10.924, wgt Bush 32.974








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