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Reply #111: Shortly we'll move to final phase: Much more info needed [View All]

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 01:18 PM
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111. Shortly we'll move to final phase: Much more info needed
To date, we have pursued discrepancies between the recorded vote and the exit poll as a sort of water-witch. Well, the stick is starting to point to a relatively few locations where we might find water if we dug a little deeper. Lets start figuring out what we want for our citizens recanvas of these precincts. Id propose that we construct a profile of each precinct with as much factual and historical information as we can find. Lets start with the 10-15 precincts (only 11 counties) with the greatest percentage discrepancy between the Bush raw survey vote and his weighted vote (See Post #110 on this thread ). Heres our question: Comparing the exit poll group and the actual voting group, what factors could have accounted for the large difference in voting percentages, e.g., random variation, characteristics of the respondents/survey bias, flaws in vote tabulation procedures? Heres a suggested approach for developing the facts and conducting the analysis in preparation for acting or not.


Election Site Structure And Voting Method For the November 2004 General Election ( Three methods used to collect this information: 1) FOIL county BOE, 2) FOIL state BOE/SOS, 3) individual queries/fact gathering by team members (maybe BBV has some of this from their FOIL?). Having the same information from multiple sources allows for validation and sets up discrepancy checking.)

1. NEP precinct name, number address.
2. Other precincts at the same address.
3. Voting equipment used (mfg, hardware, software).
4. Manufacturer of equipment
5. Is a physical record of the ballot available for review?
6. Number of machines used at this location?
7. Have the machines been used since 11/04 or cleared of operating totals?
8. Is there a chain of custody with the devices?
9. What is the service history on these machines? Are there any service records available? Who was the service technician? When was it serviced?
10. How were vote results communicated to BOE/SOS on election night? How were these machines networked at this location, dial-in locations, telephoned in results?
11. What were the types of election complaints for this county filed from the online sources?
12. Any published election complaints for this particular precinct?
13. Any reports of problems in this county in the local media?
14. General background on voting at this location from the county political party chairs and local board of election chair and staff.
15. Names and addresses of all poll workers and party observers who worked at this site on election day. Used for a follow-up telephone survey about how voting went that day.
16. Was this precinct used in the December recount? If so, what was the result and was a full canvas used?
17. Was this precinct investigated by Kerry or another presidential campaign? Findings?
18. Are the 2004 general election voter logs available? If so, obtain a copy under FOIL and enter the complete registration list and voter lists into a database for follow-up.
19. If an individual recount of a single election district is possible, then recount the specific precinct.
20. Were the boundaries of this precinct changed prior to 2004?
21. Basic demographics of voting age population: total population, Age 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+, gender, race (white, African-American, Hispanic, Oriental, other), income (Under $15,000, $15,000 - $29,999, $30,000 - $49,999, $50,000 - $74,999, $75,000 - $99,999, $100,000 - $149,999, $150,000 - $199,999, $200,000 or more), religion (protestant/other Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Other, None), education (Did not complete high school, High school graduate, Some college or associate degree, College graduate, Postgraduate study), marital status, size of place (City over 500,000, City 50,000 499,999, Suburbs: City 10,000 49,999, Rural <10,000)


The Vote (We have most of this already from official canvas reports. I will put this in a spreadsheet if folks can get me the ounty canvas reports.)

22. Number of ballots
23. Number of absentee ballots
24. Vote in Presidential, Senate and Congressional races and Issue 1 (and percentages)
25. Overvotes, undervotes for each.
26. Registered voters and turnout
27. Party registration (We have this for Hamilton County)
28. Comparison of this data with prior presidential elections (2000 probably sufficient)
29. Comparison of this data with other precincts at the same location.


The Exit Poll (We have all of this already and just need to put it into tables for comparison. I will do this.)

30. Raw survey responses Vote for President, Senate and Congress and Issue #1 (and percentages including undervote)
31. Weighted Vote for President, Senate and Congress and Issue #1 (and percentages including undervote)
32. Bush gains from weighting in raw survey responses and percentage.
33. Basic demographics of voting age population: Age 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+, gender, race (white, African-American, Hispanic, Oriental, other), income (Under $15,000, $15,000 - $29,999, $30,000 - $49,999, $50,000 - $74,999, $75,000 - $99,999, $100,000 - $149,999, $150,000 - $199,999, $200,000 or more), religion (protestant/other Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Other, None), education (Did not complete high school, High school graduate, Some college or associate degree, College graduate, Postgraduate study), marital status, size of place (City over 500,000, City 50,000 499,999, Suburbs: City 10,000 49,999, Rural <10,000)

B-)
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