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Reply #110: Updated/revised priority list--We are on the right track [View All]

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #108
110. Updated/revised priority list--We are on the right track
I've added the additional matches and a new prioritization
approach.  No matter which way we look at it the southwest
corner is a good place to be.  Below is a revised precinct
list showing how the Mitovsky weighting affected his poll
results.  This list is sorted by the percentage gain that
Mitovsky gave Bush after all weighting.  Overall, Bush's
percentage of the raw survey was 45.3 and of the weighted
survey was 50.2, or a gain of 5%.  Interestingly, Mitovsky had
to weight every single precinct (except one) in Bush's favor
in order to match the recorded vote.  Nevertheless, some
precincts were weighted far more than others.  For instance,
Mitovsky had to give Bush 7.7 percent more votes in Butler 007
and Summit 105, precincts Bush won handily. We already have
three matches from this list and will have Butler on Monday.  
Further, the top ten gains for Bush were in a relatively few
counties: Hamilton, Butler, Summit, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Scioto
and Mahonning so our follow-up investigation is simplified.

 NEP# 	 CD 	 County 		 Match_Prct 	 Sample 	 WGT 	 Bush_Gain% 
 007 	 08 	Butler		Unmatched	 45 	 44.60 	7.7%
 105 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 48 	 41.42 	7.7%
 052 	 02 	Hamilton		Cinncinnati_4-M	 31 	 37.13 	6.6%
 103 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 31 	 40.56 	6.1%
 049 	 02 	Hamilton		Anderson_JJ	 34 	 41.67 	5.9%
 021 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 21 	 39.08 	5.2%
 041 	 12 	Franklin		Unmatched	 29 	 39.79 	5.1%
 063 	 02 	Hamilton		Sharonville_4-C	 48 	 44.83 	4.8%
 098 	 02 	Scioto		Unmatched	 32 	 45.95 	4.8%
 078 	 06 	Mahon_or_Munr	Unmatched	 53 	 43.62 	4.7%
 047 	 18 	Guernsey		Unmatched	 92 	 44.73 	4.5%
 091 	 17 	Portage		Unmatched	 51 	 42.59 	4.5%
 104 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 53 	 40.87 	4.2%
 088 	 08 	Mercer_or_Miami	Unmatched	 70 	 38.08 	4.2%
 119 	 16 	Wayne		Unmatched	 37 	 39.08 	4.2%
 024 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 52 	 45.27 	4.1%
 042 	 07 	Franklin		Unmatched	 51 	 39.99 	4.0%
 067 	 14 	Lake		Unmatched	 38 	 40.32 	4.0%
 033 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 48 	 42.44 	4.0%
 048 	 18 	Guernsey		Unmatched	 15 	 38.55 	3.9%
 072 	 09 	Lucas		Unmatched	 44 	 37.96 	3.8%
 026 	 12 	Deleware		Unmatched	 46 	 42.20 	3.8%
 005 	 14 	Ashtabula	Unmatched	 36 	 42.14 	3.8%
 036 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 25 	 39.33 	3.6%
 115 	 15 	Union		Unmatched	 43 	 38.36 	3.4%
 009 	 02 	Clermont		Bethel_Village_A	 53 	 44.26 	3.4%
 011 	 11 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 53 	 40.56 	3.4%
 027 	 09 	Erie		Unmatched	 50 	 43.26 	3.3%
 076 	 17 	Mahoning		Unmatched	 32 	 39.37 	3.1%
 002 	 02 	Adams		Unmatched	 52 	 42.39 	3.0%
 101 	 16 	Stark		Unmatched	 29 	 40.22 	3.0%
 039 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 24 	 42.15 	2.9%
 014 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 47 	 38.60 	2.9%
 003 	 04 	Allen		Unmatched	 29 	 43.52 	2.7%
 094 	 05 	Put_or_Sand	Unmatched	 46 	 45.05 	2.6%
 118 	 16 	Wayne		Unmatched	 28 	 44.68 	2.3%
 057 	 01 	Hamilton		Harrison_C	 28 	 42.95 	2.2%
 055 	 02 	Hamilton		Farifax_B	 16 	 37.56 	2.1%
 114 	 18 	Tuscarawas	Unmatched	 55 	 42.72 	2.0%
 106 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 22 	 43.96 	2.0%
 054 	 01 	Hamilton		Evendale_D	 52 	 46.72 	1.9%
 074 	 09 	Lucas		Unmatched	 67 	 37.64 	1.6%
 051 	 01 	Hamilton		Cinncinnati_22-E	 53 	 36.69 	1.3%
 023 	 14 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 51 	 40.50 	1.2%
 001 	 02 	Adams		Unmatched	 25 	 42.54 	0.7%
 008 	 08 	Butler		Unmatched	 32 	 46.06 	0.4%
 100 	 05 	Seneca		Unmatched	 52 	 46.75 	0.3%
 120 	 05 	Williams		Unmatched	 43 	 40.73 	0.0%
 015 	 11 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 30 	 41.47 	-0.1%
					 2,042 	 2,041 	5.0%
B-) 
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