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Reply #99: Suggested Priority List for Decoding remaining precincts [View All]

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #93
99. Suggested Priority List for Decoding remaining precincts
In post #50 on this thread, I explained how we could use
Mitovsky's own suprise at the results in certain precincts as
a way to focus on those that need to be examined.  That post
showed which CDs to look at first.  Since matching has
accelerated with techniques/methodologies of Minvis, Skids,
Liam_laddie and kiwi_expat we should probably prioritize which
precincts and counties to focus on.  The same methodology is
used to identify those precincts where Mitovsky had to give
Bush added votes from what he expected when he selected the
precinct before the election.  The table below shows which
ones to concentrate on first.  This table shows those
precincts on top where Bush had the greatest gains after
weighting (Bush_Gain).  So these counties should be contacted
first for their exit poll precincts.  It appears that we
already have one suspicious precinct, Harrison C, and Minvis
has a good bead on three other important precincts in Hamilton
county that gave Bush surprisingly large vote totals on their
canvas.

 NEP# 	 CD 	 County Match_Prct Sample 	 WGT 	 Bush_Gain 
 048 	 18 	Guernsey	#N/A	 15 	 38.55 	 15.63 
 118 	 16 	Wayne	#N/A	 28 	 44.68 	 12.33 
 055 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 16 	 37.56 	 11.58 
 021 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 21 	 39.08 	 11.49 
 106 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 22 	 43.96 	 10.85 
 098 	 02 	Scioto	#N/A	 32 	 45.95 	 10.47 
 003 	 04 	Allen	#N/A	 29 	 43.52 	 9.67 
 039 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 24 	 42.15 	 9.55 
 057 	 01 	Hamilton	HARRISON_C 28 	 42.95 	 9.48 
 036 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 25 	 39.33 	 8.87 
 101 	 16 	Stark	#N/A	 29 	 40.22 	 8.17 
 001 	 02 	Adams	#N/A	 25 	 42.54 	 8.00 
 041 	 12 	Franklin	#N/A	 29 	 39.79 	 8.00 
 049 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 34 	 41.67 	 7.65 
 103 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 31 	 40.56 	 6.79 
 008 	 08 	Butler	#N/A	 32 	 46.06 	 6.77 
 052 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 31 	 37.13 	 4.45 
 076 	 17 	Mahoning	#N/A	 32 	 39.37 	 3.52 
 005 	 14 	Ashtabula	#N/A	 36 	 42.14 	 3.48 
 007 	 08 	Butler	#N/A	 45 	 44.60 	 3.22 
 067 	 14 	Lake	#N/A	 38 	 40.32 	 2.77 
 119 	 16 	Wayne	#N/A	 37 	 39.08 	 2.47 
 094 	 05 	Put_or_Sand	#N/A	 46 	 45.05 	 0.47 
 011 	 11 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 53 	 40.56 	 0.42 
 015 	 11 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 30 	 41.47 	 0.36 
 063 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 48 	 44.83 	 (0.03)
 105 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 48 	 41.42 	 (0.11)
 120 	 05 	Wood_or_Wlms	#N/A	 43 	 40.73 	 (0.43)
 072 	 09 	Lucas	#N/A	 44 	 37.96 	 (0.47)
 033 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 48 	 42.44 	 (0.98)
 091 	 17 	Portage	#N/A	 51 	 42.59 	 (1.06)
 026 	 12 	Deleware	#N/A	 46 	 42.20 	 (1.12)
 115 	 15 	Union	#N/A	 43 	 38.36 	 (1.38)
 051 	 01 	Hamilton	CINCINNATI_22-E	 53 	 36.69 	 (1.38)
 014 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 47 	 38.60 	 (1.74)
 042 	 07 	Franklin	#N/A	 51 	 39.99 	 (1.84)
 024 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 52 	 45.27 	 (1.90)
 104 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 53 	 40.87 	 (2.15)
 100 	 05 	Seneca	#N/A	 52 	 46.75 	 (2.17)
 078 	 06 	Mahon_or_Munr	#N/A	 53 	 43.62 	 (2.56)
 027 	 09 	Erie	#N/A	 50 	 43.26 	 (2.87)
 023 	 14 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 51 	 40.50 	 (3.00)
 054 	 01 	Hamilton	EVENDALE_D	 52 	 46.72 	 (3.07)
 002 	 02 	Adams	#N/A	 52 	 42.39 	 (3.52)
 009 	 02 	Clermont	Bethel_Village_A	 53 	 44.26 	 (3.62)
 074 	 09 	Lucas	#N/A	 67 	 37.64 	 (4.65)
 088 	 08 	Mercer_or_Miami	#N/A	 70 	 38.08 	 (5.25)
 114 	 18 	Tuscarawas	#N/A	 55 	 42.72 	 (5.84)
 047 	 18 	Guernsey	#N/A	 92 	 44.73 	 (24.19)
				 2,042 	 2,040.91 	 101.12 
B-) 
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