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Reply #53: Provisional and "spoiled" ballots could distort the analysis. [View All]

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #52
53. Provisional and "spoiled" ballots could distort the analysis.
(addendum to msg. 52 - too late to "edit"):

When comparing a precinct's exit poll data with the precinct's totals from the central tabulator for purposes of identifying possible fraud, it will be necessary to take into account the number of provisional and "spoiled" ballots for the precinct.

If the objective is (as I think it should be)selecting a few precincts for total manual recounts, it would certainly make sense to include a couple of precincts with a high number of "spoiled" ballots - assuming that the "spoiled" ballots would be included in the precinct recount.

But the project at hand, comparing exit polls with final totals for the purpose of identifying counting/tabulator fraud, should probably focus on the precincts having low numbers of provisional and "spoiled" ballots.

There is no way of subtracting out the "spoiled" ballots from the exit poll totals. And I assume that there are no sub-totals for respondents that used provisional ballots. Or are there?
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