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Reply #50: Example of how the Ohio Exit Poll can point to unexpected results [View All]

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #45
50. Example of how the Ohio Exit Poll can point to unexpected results
Minvis,  While we are trying to match exit poll precincts in
order to gain clues about where the tabulated results differed
from the exit poll, I thought I'd give an example of how this
will unfold using just the Ohio exit poll.  The table below
shows both raw survey responses and weighted responses from
the exit poll by congressional district. The exit poll shows
that bush lost the raw, unweighted survey by 168 votes out of
2042, or, 8.2 percent.  After weighting, Bush won the
reweighed sample by 41 votes, identical to his reported
victory total of 2 percent.  The weighting gave Bush a gain of
209 votes over the interview responses.  An examination of the
rest of the Ohio exit poll shows that Mitovsky's stated
methodology of weighting for age, gender and race didn't
amount to much in Ohio.  Really, the only thing that made a
difference was that the sample was reweighted to reflect the
vote total in some geographic areas, undetermined at this
point.  But this matching with vote totals did not occur
uniformly across the state even though Bush gained in each CD.
 It varied from a low of 2.46 in Cuyahoga to a high of 27
votes in CD8, the southwestern counties north of Cincinnati. 
Some of the exit poll totals were re-weighted to give Bush 15+
percentage points in a single CD.  Since the same exit poll
data exists by precinct, comparing the raw exit poll
(controlling for age, sex, gender) with the weighted results
and vote tabulation will show the precincts that differed from
what Mitovshy expected when he built his precinct sample.  We
then go to these relatively few precincts (perhaps in a
recount), examine the voter logs (that will give us clues like
big differences in gender), examine the ballots and compare
them with totals.  Rather than look everywhere for fraud, we
have targeted our search.
B-) 

 CD 	 Sample  Weight  Bush 	 Bush 	 Bush 
		  	 Gain    Margin  Margin
				 Wgt'd 	 Raw 
1	 133.00  126.36  16.47 	 6.47 	 (10.00)
2	 291.00  336.33  24.90 	 64.90 	 40.00 
4	 29.00 	 43.52 	 4.82 	 9.82 	 5.00 
5	 141.00  132.54  5.29 	 (3.71)	 (9.00)
6	 53.00 	 43.62 	 4.27 	 3.27 	 (1.00)
7	 51.00 	 39.99 	 7.13 	 (10.87) (18.00)
8	 147.00  128.74  27.63 	 (6.37)	 (34.00)
9	 161.00  118.85  26.16 	 (18.84) (45.00)
10	 120.00  122.96  13.55 	 6.55 	 (7.00)
11	 83.00 	 82.04 	 2.46 	 (67.55) (70.00)
12	 75.00 	 81.99 	 6.78 	 29.78 	 23.00 
13	 154.00  166.81  17.78 	 (5.22)	 (23.00)
14	 125.00  122.96  9.28 	 (19.72) (29.00)
15	 140.00  162.28  13.70 	 20.70 	 7.00 
16	 94.00 	 123.99  15.94 	 25.94 	 10.00 
17	 83.00 	 81.96 	 5.96 	 (21.04) (27.00)
18	 162.00  125.99  6.91 	 26.91 	 20.00 
 Total 	 2,042.	 2,040.91 209.02 41.02 	 (168.00)
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