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Reply #47: Here's what NEP (Mitofsky) says [View All]

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. Here's what NEP (Mitofsky) says
The samples were selected in two stages. First, a probability sample of voting precincts within each state was selected that represents the different geographic areas across the state and the partisan make-up of the state. Precincts were selected with a probability proportionate to the number of voters in each precinct. There are two exceptions. In some states, precincts that have large minority populations were sampled at a higher rate than other precincts. In New Hampshire a few very large precincts were sampled with certainty. The sample weighting (described below) adjusts the representation of these precincts to their correct share of the total vote. Within each precinct, voters were sampled systematically throughout the voting day at a rate that gives all voters in a precinct the same chance of being interviewed.

The exit poll results are weighted to reflect the complexity of the sampling design. That is, the weighting takes into account the different probabilities of selecting a precinct and of selecting a voter within each precinct. For example, minority precincts that were selected at a higher rate receive a smaller weight than other precincts of the same size. There is also an adjustment for voters who were missed or refused to be interviewed, which is based on their observed age, race and gender.

Your guess is as good as mine. It does almost sound like the people are picked for aggregate analysis instead of by the particular demographics of the precinct. Any thoughts?
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