You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #35: Good job, Minvis! [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. Good job, Minvis!
Good job! Where did you get the population data for the precincts? Why did you choose Evendale C over Evendale D, they looked similar by vote. One interesting thing is that the exit poll weighted percentage inflated Bush's result (and deflated Kerry's by same) by two percent in all three precincts surveyed in CD1. But the same weighting inflated Voinovich by two percent. Therefore the bias that they were trying to correct for worked at cross purposes to party, hardly a ringing endorsement of the Kerry-voter-response-bias theory. It was also a slight downward adjustment for Kerry (one percent) against actual assuming Evendale C is the correct pick. Another interesting thing about these three precincts is that the weighting (36.69) of the big Kerry victory in exit poll sample 01050 was substantially below that (46.72) of 01054 (Evandale C) even though the sample sizes were equivalent 52/53. If we could identify 01054 next we would have an important key to Mitovsky's weighting algorithm.

I just received Montgomery County's canvass from the BOE. I'll start work on that one which is a good part of CD3 and part of CD8. CD3 is irrelevant because there were no interviews in that CD in the exit poll. I think we should do CD2 and CD8 next but most of those counties' canvas reports are not online. If someone could send me the text file, I'd be happy to plug it into a spreadhseet for us.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC