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Reply #35: Good job, Minvis! [View All]

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. Good job, Minvis!
Good job! Where did you get the population data for the precincts? Why did you choose Evendale C over Evendale D, they looked similar by vote. One interesting thing is that the exit poll weighted percentage inflated Bush's result (and deflated Kerry's by same) by two percent in all three precincts surveyed in CD1. But the same weighting inflated Voinovich by two percent. Therefore the bias that they were trying to correct for worked at cross purposes to party, hardly a ringing endorsement of the Kerry-voter-response-bias theory. It was also a slight downward adjustment for Kerry (one percent) against actual assuming Evendale C is the correct pick. Another interesting thing about these three precincts is that the weighting (36.69) of the big Kerry victory in exit poll sample 01050 was substantially below that (46.72) of 01054 (Evandale C) even though the sample sizes were equivalent 52/53. If we could identify 01054 next we would have an important key to Mitovsky's weighting algorithm.

I just received Montgomery County's canvass from the BOE. I'll start work on that one which is a good part of CD3 and part of CD8. CD3 is irrelevant because there were no interviews in that CD in the exit poll. I think we should do CD2 and CD8 next but most of those counties' canvas reports are not online. If someone could send me the text file, I'd be happy to plug it into a spreadhseet for us.
B-)
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