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Reply #23: Freeman (Simon) OH exit data: 1963 polled, Kerry 52.06% of 2-party vote. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 02:52 AM
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23. Freeman (Simon) OH exit data: 1963 polled, Kerry 52.06% of 2-party vote.
Edited on Sun Feb-20-05 03:17 AM by TruthIsAll
So the raw data is even better for Kerry than was used in the
exit poll analysis. He has an 8.23% (53.48-45.25) margin vs.
4.12% (52.06-47.94). 

This makes it even more improbable for Bush to win the state.
For 52.06%, the probability was 0.28% or 1 out of 352, based
on 1963 polled and an MOE = 2.21%.

For 53.48%, the probability becomes 1 in 6.8 trillion..

Prob =1-NORMDIST(0.5348,0.4525,0.0221/1.96,TRUE)	
= 1.45994E-13	

or 1 in 6,849,581,182,313

OHIO			
At 7:32PM, Kerry was winning the male AND female exit poll 		
There were 1963 polled and he led 52-48%			

At 1:41AM, the numbers reversed.			
There were 2020 polled and Bush led 52-47%			
How could this occur with an increase of only 57 polled?			

7:32PM
1963	Polled	
......Mix   Bush 	Kerry
Women	53%	47%	53%
Men	47%	49%	51%

Total	100%	47.94%	52.06%

1:41AM	
2020	Polled	
......Mix   Bush 	Kerry
Women	53%	50%	50%
Men	47%	52%	47%

Total	100%	50.94%	48.59%





	Poll			Kerry	2 party	Poll	Prob.	Dev/	Beyond
	Odds
St	Size	MOE	Stdev	Vote	Poll	Dev	Dev	MOE	MOE?	
NH	1849	2.27%	1.16%	50.69%	55.50	-4.81%	0.00%	-2.12	Yes	62407
NY	1452	2.47%	1.26%	59.29%	63.97	-4.68%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes	9734
SC	1735	2.34%	1.20%	41.36%	45.79	-4.42%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes	9115
NC	2167	2.10%	1.07%	43.76%	47.31	-3.55%	0.05%	-1.69	Yes	2171
VT	685	3.56%	1.81%	60.30%	65.69	-5.38%	0.15%	-1.51	Yes	669
PA	1930	2.22%	1.13%	51.26%	54.41	-3.15%	0.27%	-1.42	Yes	366

OH	1963	2.21%	1.13%	48.94%	52.06	-3.12%	0.28%	-1.41	Yes	352

MN	2178	2.09%	1.07%	51.76%	54.61	-2.85%	0.38%	-1.36	Yes	266
FL	2846	1.84%	0.94%	47.48%	49.93	-2.45%	0.44%	-1.34	Yes	226
DE	770	3.48%	1.78%	53.83%	58.44	-4.61%	0.47%	-1.32	Yes	211
MA	889	3.10%	1.58%	62.68%	66.46	-3.79%	0.84%	-1.22	Yes	119
AL	730	3.57%	1.82%	37.10%	41.08	-3.98%	1.45%	-1.11	Yes	69

RI	809	3.30%	1.69%	60.58%	64.24	-3.66%	1.49%	-1.11	Yes	67
NJ	1520	2.49%	1.27%	53.40%	56.13	-2.73%	1.61%	-1.09	Yes	62
AK	910	3.18%	1.62%	36.77%	40.14	-3.37%	1.91%	-1.06	Yes	52
UT	798	3.18%	1.62%	26.65%	29.93	-3.28%	2.16%	-1.03	Yes	46
NE	785	3.37%	1.72%	33.15%	36.54	-3.39%	2.43%	-1.01	Yes	41

CT	872	3.27%	1.67%	55.28%	58.47	-3.20%	2.76%	-0.98		36
NV	2116	2.13%	1.09%	48.68%	50.66	-1.98%	3.44%	-0.93		29
AR	1402	2.61%	1.33%	44.72%	46.93	-2.21%	4.89%	-0.84		20
VA	1431	2.59%	1.32%	45.87%	47.96	-2.09%	5.65%	-0.81		18
MS	798	3.44%	1.75%	40.44%	43.20	-2.76%	5.77%	-0.80		17

NM	1951	2.22%	1.13%	49.60%	51.34	-1.74%	6.17%	-0.79		16
LA	1669	2.38%	1.22%	42.67%	44.50	-1.83%	6.67%	-0.77		15
IL	1392	2.60%	1.33%	55.22%	57.13	-1.92%	7.44%	-0.74		13
CO	2515	1.95%	1.00%	47.63%	49.07	-1.44%	7.45%	-0.74		13
AZ	1859	2.27%	1.16%	45.00%	46.60	-1.60%	8.39%	-0.70		12

ID	559	3.91%	1.99%	30.68%	33.33	-2.66%	9.14%	-0.68		11
WA	2123	2.12%	1.08%	53.65%	55.07	-1.42%	9.43%	-0.67		11
GA	1536	2.48%	1.26%	41.65%	43.11	-1.46%	12.33%	-0.59		8
DC	795	1.92%	0.98%	90.52%	91.63	-1.11%	12.86%	-0.58		8
MO	2158	2.11%	1.07%	46.38%	47.48	-1.09%	15.42%	-0.52		6

IA	2502	1.96%	1.00%	49.66%	50.67	-1.01%	15.62%	-0.52		6
IN	926	3.17%	1.62%	39.58%	40.97	-1.39%	19.43%	-0.44		5
MI	2452	1.98%	1.01%	51.73%	52.55	-0.83%	20.66%	-0.42		5
CA	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.04%	55.73	-0.69%	27.12%	-0.31		4
KY	1034	3.00%	1.53%	39.99%	40.76	-0.76%	30.89%	-0.25		3

MD	1000	3.07%	1.57%	56.57%	57.04	-0.47%	38.14%	-0.15		3
OK	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.43%	34.73	-0.30%	40.32%	-0.13		2
ME	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.58%	54.83	-0.25%	41.15%	-0.11		2
WI	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.19%	50.21	-0.02%	49.17%	-0.01		2
MT	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.50%	39.28	0.22%	45.51%	0.06		2

HI	499	4.38%	2.23%	54.40%	53.32	1.08%	31.38%	0.25		3
OR	1064	3.00%	1.53%	52.11%	51.22	0.89%	28.17%	0.29		4
SD	1495	2.45%	1.25%	39.09%	37.42	1.67%	9.11%	0.68		11
WY	684	3.50%	1.78%	29.69%	32.07	2.38%	9.07%	0.68		11
ND	649	3.63%	1.85%	36.09%	33.58	2.51%	8.76%	0.69		11

KS	654	3.65%	1.86%	37.13%	34.60	2.53%	8.68%	0.69		12
WV	1722	2.35%	1.20%	43.52%	45.19	1.67%	8.14%	0.71		12
TX	1671	2.31%	1.18%	38.49%	36.84	1.65%	8.08%	0.71		12
TN	1774	2.29%	1.17%	42.81%	41.15	1.66%	7.75%	0.73		13
										
	73607	2.71%	1.38%	47.09%	48.84	-1.59%	10.27%	-0.62		

			
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