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Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data [View All]

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 03:21 PM
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Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data
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I downloaded the exit poll data for Ohio from the University of Michigan ftp site found at this DU board.

What I found in raw numbers is that 2042 people were interviewed by the exit poll. 1092 of them said they voted for Kerry, 924 said they voted for Bush. The other 26 people either voted for other candidates, did not vote or failed to tell the interviewees who they voted for. By the way that breaks out to 53.48% that said they voted for Kerry, 45.25% that said they voted for Bush.

I next looked at what the ratio of political party ID of those who were in the exit poll. The ratio was 37% Democratic, 33% Republican, 30% Independent. I should note, however, that the 30% Independent percentage was obtained by including everyone who said they were Independents along with anyone who said Other or did not note at all what their party ID was. The vote breakdown within those party IDs were as follows. 91% of Democrats voted for Kerry, 94% of Republicans voted for Bush and 59% of Independents voted for Kerry.

With these numbers, I then tested out how the numbers would have changed with more Republicans being surveyed. First, I looked at a split of 34% Republican, 33% Democrat and 33% Independent. This still gave Kerry a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Only when I switched the Democratic and Republican percentages to 37% Republican, 33% Democrat and 30% Independent did Bush come out ahead, albeit barely, 50.1% to 49.9%. A virtual dead heat.

What I don't know, and maybe someone like TIA can find this out, is what the party ID percentage was historically in Ohio.
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