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Reply #4: Now you've got it. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-12-05 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
4. Now you've got it.
I think you might have nailed it. A bit of a different tact than I was thinking, but well played, and thanks for listening.

The great thing is that the freepers can't even get out of this by claiming that conservatives lied to exit pollers.

The only way to fix the numbers would be to lower Bush 2000 voters/add Gore voters and change the Bush/Kerry split in each group, there are only three kinds of liars that could change the results to conform with Mitofski's explanation.

1) Bush 2000 voters that voted for Bush in 2004, told the exit pollers that they voted for Bush in 2000, but told them that they voted for Kerry in 2004. That would be kind of half-ass, now, wouldn't it?

2) 2000 Nader (or other third party) voters who voted for Bush and lied about it. But there aren't very many of those to go around, for sure.

3) New voters that voted for Bush and lied about it, but didn't lie about not voting in 2000.

The only one that could make any sense whatsoever is #3, and even that is a pretty doubtful scenario.

The second great thing is that it works for the "final weighted" numbers, too. In fact, there the inconsistancy is even worse.

There were people lying to exit pollers, mind you, but it wasn't because they wanted to. It was because they just didn't know that the vote they tried to cast for Kerry was actually counted for Bush.

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