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BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-12-05 11:47 AM
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BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
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Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM by TruthIsAll
According to Mitofsky's now famous fact-free hypothesis,
Democrats were more inclined to speak to exit pollsters than
Republicans, who for some unexplained reason were reluctant to
do so. 

USCountVote.com has already debunked the theory, using data
from Mitofsky's 77-page report. The following analysis is
additional confirmation that the theory is bogus. 

I analyzed voter demographics from the Mitofsky/Edison
National Exit poll as posted on the now famous NEP/Washington
Post site. There were 13,047 individuals polled and the margin
of error was 1.0%, according to Edison/Mitofsky's notes at the
bottom of the screen.

Now for the vital statistics:
1) The 38/35/27 party ID split is the same as in prior
elections.

2) 41% of voters said they voted for Bush in 2000.
Only 38% of voters said they voted for Gore.
But Gore won the popular vote by over 1/2 million votes.

THE 38% WHO VOTED FOR GORE EXACTLY EQUALED THE 38% IDENTIFIED
AS DEMOCRATS IN PARTY-ID! IS THIS A COINCIDENCE, CONSPIRACY,
OR JUST PLAIN OLD CONFIRMATION?

How can Mitofsky push a "Reluctant Bush Responder"
theory, especially when analysis of the data in his own report
AND THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL reveals just the opposite? 

According the USCountVote.com, Bush responders in Republican
precincts were MORE inclined to speak to the exit pollsters.
This is confirmed by analyzing the following characteristics
from the National Exit Poll:

		      HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	        100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				Probability: 1 in	303,538,508

2000
VOTE           Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	         17%	39%	59%	1%	6.6%	10.0%	0.2%
Gore	         38%	8%	91%	1%	3.0%	34.6%	0.4%
Bush	         41%	90%	9%	0%	36.9%	3.7%	0.0%
Other	          4%	13%	65%	16%	0.5%	2.6%	0.6%
	        100%				47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
				Probability: 1 in	2,043,375,511,511


The two probabilities are the chances of Bush gaining from his
exit poll percentage to the final vote (50.73%). 

It is a simple spreadsheet calculation using the binomial
distribution, with Standard Deviation = .01/1.96 (MOE/1.96).

1) Probability = 1 -BINOMDIST(.5073, .4777, .01/1.96, TRUE)
2) Probability = 1 -BINOMDIST(.5073, .4709, .01/1.96, TRUE)



 
 
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