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Reply #29: SO MUCH FOR THE "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-12-05 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #1
29. SO MUCH FOR THE "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER"
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 11:45 AM by TruthIsAll
According to Mitofsky's fact-free hypothesis, Democrats were
more inclined to speak to exit pollsters than Republicans, who
were for some unexplained reason, reluctant to do so.

These demographics from the National Exit poll, posted on the
NEP/Washington Post site, seem to say otherwise.
There were 13,047 respondents.
The margin of error was 1.0%.

Note the following:
1) The 38/35/27 party ID split is the same as in prior
elections.

2) 41% of voters said they voted for Bush in 2000.
Only 38% of voters said they voted for Gore.
But Gore won the popular vote by over 1/2 million votes.

So how can Mitofsky claim the "Reluctant Bush
Responder" theory, especially when close analysis of his
own report reveals just the opposite and is in agreement with
the exit poll results below:


		      HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	        100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				Probability: 1 in	303,538,508
2000
VOTE           Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	         17%	39%	59%	1%	6.6%	10.0%	0.2%
Gore	         38%	8%	91%	1%	3.0%	34.6%	0.4%
Bush	         41%	90%	9%	0%	36.9%	3.7%	0.0%
Other	          4%	13%	65%	16%	0.5%	2.6%	0.6%
	        100%				47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
				Probability: 1 in	2,043,375,511,511

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