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Reply #21: WE CAN BEAT THIS. How to figure out the precincts' real numbers. [View All]

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-10-05 07:44 PM
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21. WE CAN BEAT THIS. How to figure out the precincts' real numbers.
...at least in North Carolina...

The NEP polled at a little under 1% of all precincts. The chances of noticing an exit poller working a precinct at the same polling place as you proably brings brings the odds up to 1/100 that any given person knows one of the precincts where the NEP polled.

Out of thousands of DUers and other activists, we should be able to identify some of the precincts (we have to be careful that we know that the pollsters were NEP as opposed to some other local exit poll.) Then it becomes an excercise in elimination to map these precincts to the ones in the NEP file.

As an experiment, I took the detailed voter registration information for NC which I posted a link to above, and wrote a program to eliminate precincts that did not have as many voters of an age/sex/race/party registered as the exit poll interviewed. I chose only those categories because the answers are reliable -- for example I did not filter on "hispanic" voters because the ethnicity question is optional on registrations.

Now, admittedly, my program needs a little work. The below results are probably better than a more rigorous treatment would provide. Though, my guess though is that the best results mostly hinged on rare birds like "black female republicans age 26-40" and should hold up.

Out of 2835 precincts in NC, the possible NC NEP precincts were limited in this fashion:


Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 34: "1415"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 56: "496"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 50: "1620"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 57: "504"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 24: "1678"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 77: "1290"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 12: "1540"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 82: "1912"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 14: "1556"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 18: "261"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 5: "1677"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 16: "2135"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 81: "1566"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 53: "1597"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 88: "1464"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 92: "2070"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 46: "408"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 85: "1504"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 64: "2410"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 17: "712"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 68: "1698"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 94: "1928"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 31: "2232"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 27: "2156"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 48: "1538"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 37: "1937"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 4: "1481"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 9: "123"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 25: "961"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 96: "1493"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 60: "760"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 39: "1513"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 26: "2557"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 30: "1695"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 97: "1525"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 90: "1648"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 19: "351"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 69: "245"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 75: "2152"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 10: "1960"


Now, divide the above numbers by 13. Why? Because the NEP data recorded the congressional district number of each survey. There are 13 districts in NC. The reason I didn't have my program filter that is because we do not know for sure yet that the number in the NEP file correctly corresponds with the official NC congressional district number. It probably does (NC districts 1 to 13 had races in them) but we shouldn't take that for granted. It should be possible to figure out which districts are which with a bit of effort, if not.

Working with a list of *all* precincts of course is infinitely inferior to working with a list of precincts where we know the NEP was at the polling place. We probably won't be able to get them all, but we CAN figure out a good number. The number of NEP precincts in each congressional district ranges for 3 to 6. If we did know all the NEP polling locations...

What we need is to collect trustworthy data from people who ran into exit pollers. Not my specialty. Plus I have other work for USCountVotes to be doing. Though I will keep an eye out for detailed registration data files from other states.

My program is available for any Perl coders who would like a few code fragments to jump-start their own analysis. PM me or wait a day for the SourceForge mirrors to catch up and look here for a file named nc_nep.pl.

http://cvs.sourceforge.net/viewcvs.py/uscvprogs/project... /
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