Reply #21: Summary of Deviations

[TruthIsAll]

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83		
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		
											
Average of 43 states (incl DC) which favor Bush:
NPoll MOE   Std
1483	2.81%	1.43%	

Vote: 50.40%;Poll 48.09%; Dev= +2.31% 
Prob: 1 in 2,060,491 

16 states exceeded MOE
5 states flip


Average of 8 states which favor Kerry:
NPoll MOE   Std
1056	3.34%	1.71%	

Vote: 40.93; Poll	42.41; Dev	1.48%	
Prob: 1 in 3 

1 state exceeded MOE
None flip