Reply #19: Correction: NV in wrong region, recalc averages

[TruthIsAll]

This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent (Bush+Kerry=100%).

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 22 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 4.2 million

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 32.5 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.82%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.86%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 28

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.22 (82%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.83%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 



	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

EASTERN
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.00%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.01%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.01%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.05%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.20%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.24%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.30%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.50%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.60%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.10%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	

MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.40%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.82%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.05%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.34%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.13%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		

GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.02%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.33%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.39%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.01%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		
MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.24%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		

KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.57%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.88%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		
											
CENTRAL
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.46%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.39%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.70%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.40%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.39%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		

IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.90%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.73%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.42%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.80%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.21%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		

WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.45%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	8.96%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.28%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.27%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.51%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.76%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		
											
MOUNTAIN
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.61%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.52%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.76%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.61%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.24%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		

ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.18%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.24%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.60%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06		
											
PACIFIC
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.94%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.25%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.58%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.67%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.24%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
													

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
Total
Avg	1443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10	0	-1.33	0.83		
Med	1495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15	0	-1.50	0.76		

Average											
Bush	1429	2.87%	1.47%	50.58	48.20	-2.38%	10.33%	10	43	-1.69	0.89	16	5
Kerry	1520	2.76%	1.41%	39.50	40.55	1.05%	19.53%	5	8	0.64	0.49	1	0
													
Region (average deviations are for Bush only)
East	1471	2.78%	1.42%	55.11	52.31	-2.80%	9.24%	3153	22	-2.03	1.04	12	3
Cent	1476	2.80%	1.43%	43.17	42.35	-0.82%	12.16%	31	11	-0.59	0.71	3	1
Mount	1390	3.04%	1.55%	41.54	39.68	-1.86%	11.97%	15	7	-1.30	0.68	0	1
Pac	1303	3.06%	1.56%	51.10	50.26	-0.83%	21.34%	25	3	-0.64	0.52	1	0
													
Reg   No.	>MOE	Prob:1 in	 ToBush	  Prob							
East	22	12	32.5trillion   22	  4,194,304				
Cent	16	3	146	         11	  10
Mount	8	0	1	          7	  28
Pac	5	1	8	          3	   2