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The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-05-05 01:39 PM
Original message
The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis
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Edited on Sat Feb-05-05 02:11 PM by TruthIsAll
This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent.

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 23 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.77%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8,388,608

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.08%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
6 of 7 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.18%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.2 (84%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.99%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 



	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

Eastern
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.0%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.0%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.0%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.1%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.2%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.2%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.3%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.5%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.6%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.1%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	

MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.8%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.0%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.6%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.3%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		

WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.1%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		
GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.0%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.3%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.4%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.0%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		

MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.2%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		
KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.6%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.9%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		

Central
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.5%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.7%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.4%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.4%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		

IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.9%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.7%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.4%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.8%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.2%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		

WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.4%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	9.0%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.3%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.3%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.5%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.8%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		

Mountain
CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.5%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.8%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.6%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		

WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.6%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06		

Pacific
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.9%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.6%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.7%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.2%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
												

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

Total 
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83		
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		
													
Bavg	1516	2.75%	1.40%	49.55	47.58	-1.97%	9.90%	10	43	-1.45	0.88	16	5
Kavg	1050	3.41%	1.74%	45.02	43.90	-1.12%	21.84%	5	8	-0.69	0.48	1	0
													
Region (Deviations are for Bush alone)
East	1499	2.75%	1.40%	54.92	52.15	-2.77%	8.99%	3017	23	-2.02	1.03	12	3
Cent	1580	2.69%	1.37%	46.10	44.01	-2.08%	13.08%	41	11	-1.44	0.73	3	1
Mount	1394	3.03%	1.55%	40.39	38.21	-2.18%	7.76%	15	6	-1.45	0.74	0	1
Pac	1651	2.59%	1.32%	50.31	48.32	-1.99%	14.26%	40	3	-1.38	0.70	1	0

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