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Reply #7: BOTH of Freeman's reports throughly debunked [View All]

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Mistwell Donating Member (553 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. BOTH of Freeman's reports throughly debunked
For the second one, see:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_is_the...

"Freeman has recently updated his paper with calculations that rely on this 30% estimate. However, following my post I received an email from Nick Panagakis informing me that the 30% estimate was out of date (Panagakis is the president of a Market Shares Corporation, a polling firm that has conducted exit polls in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states). Panagakis had checked with Warren Mitofsky, director of the NEP exit poll, and learned that the updated design effect used in 2004 assumed a 50% to 80% increase in error over simple random sampling (with the range depending on the number of precincts sampled in a given state). Blogger Rick Brady (Stones Cry Out) has subsequently confirmed that information in an email exchange with Mitofsky that he posted on his website.

Thus, the calculations in Freemans revised paper continue to understate the sampling error for the 2004 exit polls (more on this in a post to follow)."



This is followed up recently with interviews WITH THE ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO CONDUCTED THIS EXIT POLL, and it found that, low and behold, the exit pollers screwed it up.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/professor_m...
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